Tuesday, January 10, 2006

Chopped from the Knee & Overthrown

Well, it really wasn't that hard to predict, but it's time to pat myself on the back:
The Giants will lose to the Panthers, because their defense isn't good enough to stop the Panthers consistently and the Panthers defense is good enough to stop Tiki Barber enough while cover Eli Manning's passes. Watch for interceptions on overthrown balls.
Let's see... 3 interceptions, and the two that I saw video of both looked overthrown. Surprising? No. A good friend, InfiniteBassur, had questioned that suggestion before the came, claiming it lacked statistical basis. Even if you can prove Manning overthrows the ball a lot, and the Panthers get a lot of interceptions, it's hard to say that will definitely result in Carolina picks. He was right, it's not a perfect assumption - but it's still logical to say that the Panthers would play back on certain throws and if they see it's being overthrown, wait on the ball.

Meanwhile, I'm sick of hearing that the Bengals lost because Carson Palmer got hurt. They lost because they gave up 31 points, period. Kitna actually played pretty well, and had the defense made a couple of stops and not let the Steelers back in the game, they would have been in far better shape. Falling for 2 trick plays and muffing a FG snap don't help much, either.

Next week is a far harder week to pick. I'm going to wait until I read and hear a bit more before I make my predictions.

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  1. So, when will Eli stop getting a free pass already? And what do you think the newspaper columnists would be writing about him if his last name were "Schwartz?"

  2. He's still solid, he just has this obvious problem that he overthrows people. If he could get a little touch on his passes... he could be almost as good as Peyton was 5 years ago.

  3. What do you think of the Pats/Broncos?

  4. Not sure yet. I just read a good article on this last night - the Broncos beat them 28-20 earlier, but the Pats were missing Dillon and Faulk, among others. The Patriots' numbers from weeks 12-16 are RIDICULOUS. I hate to say it, but they're playing like champs now - but it is in Mile High (or Convesco or whatever it is), which is notoriously loud and an adjustment for any team.

  5. I like their chances. They'll also have Bruschi and Seymour -- unless Richard twists his knee getting out of a car this week. I like their chances, but I'd never give them more than 55 % this week.

    However, if you pay attention to the tempo of a Patriots game, you can tell when they are winning -- even if they are not. If they are in control, it will be like the Bucs of the Jaguars all over again.

    I expect it to be close though. Good game, for sure.

  6. That's much like I said about the Steelers game this week. Even down 17-7 and playing poorly, you knew they had the game. As soon as they cut it to 17-14, I said "Game Over".

    Only thing is the Broncos are never a control-type team. They seem to do everything in spurts, and with the crowd behind them, you'll see a lot of quick changes in momentum.

    It will undoubtedly be a close game.