(Jumps madly up and down) Ezzie, on the poll thing, you are correct that it looks fishy if there are equal numbers of Republicans, Democrats, and Independents. But we would not expect to see that! We would expect to see respondents closely divided between Republicans and Democrats for the most part and maybe 15 to 20% independents. Look what we get if we have 42.5% Democrats, 42.5% Republicans, and 15% independents: (Bush approval) = (10%) * (42.5) + (77%) * (42.5) + (42%) * (15) = 36.975 + 6.3 = 43.275 To get to 34% we must have about 56% Democrats and 29% Republicans.
Thanks everybody! I happened to scroll to the bottom, and I saw I was exactly on 30,000 hits. Thanks!
30,001!
ReplyDelete(Jumps madly up and down)
ReplyDeleteEzzie, on the poll thing, you are correct that it looks fishy if there are equal numbers of Republicans, Democrats, and Independents. But we would not expect to see that! We would expect to see respondents closely divided between Republicans and Democrats for the most part and maybe 15 to 20% independents.
Look what we get if we have 42.5% Democrats, 42.5% Republicans, and 15% independents:
(Bush approval) = (10%) * (42.5) + (77%) * (42.5) + (42%) * (15) = 36.975 + 6.3 = 43.275
To get to 34% we must have about 56% Democrats and 29% Republicans.
10% independents was similar.
ReplyDeleteNot being able to do math is a great disadvantage in life. I saw the ".063" and forgot what I was working with.
ReplyDeleteBlueenclave - you're right; I noted that in the comments by DB, I believe. I was being kind... :)
ReplyDeleteThanks!
Did you give yourself a prize?
ReplyDeleteMay your next 30k come even faster (although that was pretty fast).
AbbaGav - I should have! :) Thanks.
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ReplyDeletePoll numbers not getting any better across time in any category Also notice that Gallup has broken down the figures by self-identified ideology.
(Hat tip: DemfromCT)
Congrats! That's great!
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