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Sunday, July 02, 2006

The 1000-for-1 Offer

Although I was tempted to put up a roundup tonight, simply because there were a lot of great posts out there, I am forcing myself not to, as I'm still really on vacation. (Can't you tell? No? Yeah, me either.) However, I felt compelled to comment on this subject, as I've seen so many people discussing it, so...

Many bloggers and news media have been discussing the supposed offer Hamas made to Israel in exchange for the kidnapped soldier, Gilad Shalit. Hamas apparently offered to return Shalit in exchange for the release of 1,000 prisoners - terrorists who are sitting in Israeli jails for crimes they committed or helped to be committed against Israel.

Israel's response was quick and obvious: They will never agree to such an exchange, as such an exchange would only result in more kidnappings in the future. This is true, this is obvious, and Israel is taking the proper approach in this regard.

But let's think about the offer for a moment: Hamas offered one Israeli life in exchange for 1,000 Palestinian lives. What is the obvious conclusion one can make from such an offer? Please correct me if I'm wrong, but to me this means two things (which are similar but different):
1) Hamas feels that the life of an Israeli is so important to Israel that they would consider trading 1,000 jailed terrorists and their ilk for that one life. In fact, Hamas is correct in this regard. The reason Israel will not negotiate such a deal is not because they don't value the life of Shalit to that extent, but rather because they understand that it is simply trading Shalit's life for the lives of others.

2) Hamas recognizes that the value of one Israeli life is worth 1,000 Palestinian lives. Forget for a moment that the Palestinians are consistently willing to sacrifice their own people's lives simply to kill Jews (via suicide bombings) - Hamas in this case will accept only 1,000 Palestinian prisoners in exchange for Shalit. That means, in simple terms, that unless they are receiving 1,000 prisoners they don't feel they are getting their money's worth. This is because they understand that (1) is true: Israel does value the lives of its people.
The question becomes... should Israel employ this value system which Hamas has brought into the discussion? Should Israel fight Hamas on the basis of Hamas' value system, which means that every Israeli life is worth 1,000 Palestinian lives? I am not suggesting that Israel indiscriminately target 1,000 Palestinians every time an Israeli is murdered; I'm merely noting that Israel cannot fight an enemy as if they value human life to the same extent we do when in fact they do not - not at all.

It is for this reason that I particularly enjoyed WBM's post last week which stated:
There is no lose in this scenario, because the terrorists don't value the same things we do.

So how do you proceed in this kind of a war? You figure out how to change it from win/win to lose. You figure out what the other side really values and you go after it.
It is also why some of Israel's actions this week, while on the surface confounding, actually make incredible sense. Israel is very clearly going about its business this week - without killing or injuring almost anyone (at last count, two terrorists have been killed and one injured in extremely precise attacks). They have captured a small but sizeable portion of the Hamas legislature and threatened to take out the elected prime minister of the Palestinians, Ismail Haniyah, and destroyed the main bridges and crossings along with the Interior Ministry and other Palestinian government buildings - again, without casualties. They have threatened to bomb more targets, but have started dropping leaflets in Arabic advising people to stay away from those areas.

Why is this? It seems that Israel is demonstrating some points to both the Palestinians and the rest of the world. To the Palestinians it is saying simply:
"These are the people you elected. If you care about them, and care to have a government, then you will make sure that they do as you want - and that better be in line with what we want - or you will no longer have a government."
To the rest of the world it is stating:
"These are the elected representatives of the Palestinian people. If, as you claim, they should be treated as such, then we are willing to hold them completely responsible for all actions taken by their people against our own. If, as you claim, they cannot control the people they represent, then they are a worthless government entity and there exists no Palestinian government with which we must negotiate with, and we will take action as we see fit.

You cannot have it both ways. Which one will it be?"
I, for one, am very interested in hearing the world's - and the Palestinians' - answer.

10 comments:

  1. Please correct me if I'm wrong, but to me this means two things

    Aren't you forgetting the obvious? It seems quite likely that they never intended to offer Israel a deal they would accept. The offer was just to make it seem like they had the moral highground. (Needless to say, they didn't.)

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  2. Yes and no, simply because it's obvious that they don't have the moral high ground here anyway. Also, as this was through "mediators", it sounds like they wouldn't have minded if Israel actually took the deal.

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  3. Ez, I guess they listened to you, because the ultimatum is now at 1,500 prisoners for the soldier. Good work!
    -OC

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  4. I'm not sure if that's better or worse... but I'm going with better for now.

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  5. I'm sure tomorrow it will be 2,000. As far as that goes, jewish atheist is on the right path. HAMAS is going to start making higher demands that it knows Israel won't offer in order to draw Israel into Gaza. That's exactly what they want.
    -OC

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  6. Of course. And as Israel doesn't act the way Hamas wants, it becomes increasingly obvious - to all. I never thought I'd say this, but Olmert (or somebody) is being pretty wise about this.

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  7. Ez, unfortunately, no, Olmert is NOT being pretty wise about this. This past week and a few days have been the longest NON-Operation in Israeli Army history, and that very fact is going to get many many soldiers killed. The fact is that Olmert is seriously considering HAMAS' "offers", and he is not sticking his words to actions. This past week-end's Jpost had a great article about how this is Olmert's 9/11, not in terms of size of crisis but in terms of timing and scope. Let's compare here. Within 48 hours after 9/11, Bush was on his way to Ground Zero, standing with the workers and being a leader. Olmert has NEVER VISITED SDEROT SINCE HIS INCEPTION AS PRIME MINISTER. Bush said that whoever committed 9/11 would be tracked down, and we would take the fight to their territory. Within a month, troops were massing in Afghanistan and decimating the Taliban and Al-Queda forces. Israeli troops are have been amassed on Gaza's borders for over a week, have not gone in and done anything. Every time it seems that Olmert is going to put words to actions, he backs out at the last minute and comes up with some excuse as to why we need to wait one more day. He is continuously allowing the fight to take place on Israeli territory with no reprecussions followed. As I am writing this, more rockets are being fired into Israel. As I am watching the news, a Kassam hit a school in Ashkelon. Thank G-d, school is out for the summer.

    Olmert is a weak leader with no follow-through. He has made the worse case possible for his country, and in doing so, has given HAMAS, of all people, the moral high-ground here. This operation, while in part to save Gilad, is NOT ABOUT Gilad. The killing of Gilad's comrades and his kidnapping should have been the straw in a thousand straws to break the cammel's back and go in and defend Israel's sovereignty. Gilad's kidnapping and the killings of his comrades should have been declared by Olmert as the act of war that it was. Going into Gaza should have been declared an Operation to topple the HAMAS infrastructure, ala the Taliban and Al-Queda, to stop rockets from flying into Gaza, AND to get Gilad back, dead or alive. Instead, Olmert has insisted that this is all about getting Gilad back, making the case that if they would just return him, he would stop the Operation. Not only is that irrational, it sends the message to the world that Israel is willing to live with 1,000+ rockets flying into its communities, and they don't see those same rockets as a threat to their sovereignty. This therefore creates the situation that if we were to go after the terrorists and HAMAS government because of this, the world would condemn us (as usual), and we would have no legitimate case to make for our actions. In declaring HAMAS' actions last Sunday an act of war, Gilad would have automatically been given the status of a POW under the Geneva Convention, whether his kidnappers recognize those laws or not. The threats would being made would HAVE to be condemned by the UN and the world in accordance with the law. No government would be able to scream about "collective punishment" or such since it would officially be war, and in war, civilian/non-combatant casualties are not seen as such. Even more so, the fact that non-combatants would die as a result of the fact that the terrorists are fighting and hiding amongst civilian populations (and using civilians as human shields, as they love to do) would HAVE to be condemned by the world, because these actions are also in direct violation of international law and the Geneva Convention's rules of engagement. Lastly, since the government is ruled by HAMAS, and the whole organization is classified as a terrorist organization, and intelligence shows that the planning of last week's insurgency came all the way from the top-down, Hanyieh and all government officials being held in Israeli custody now would be tried as WAR CRIMINALS.

    So, in short, NO, Olmert is NOT being smart about his. He's being as stupid as stupid can be. The only way he could be dumber is if he said that he's removing the troops from Gaza's borders, because "negotiations" will be the only way to appease the terrorists, and then start dismantling illegal outposts tomorrow. So, yeah, actually, he could get dumber...
    -OC

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  8. Actually, I don't think we disagree as much as you think. I agree on all the past situations regarding Olmert, but I disagree on this one. I'm more in tune with WBM's post on this. As much as I think the world would be better if we went in and kicked terrorist butt, I think that this lull for now is simply decreasing the ability of the world to cry out against Israeli action when they do it. It's reminding people more and more just who we're dealing with.

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  9. But, Ez, no matter how much or how little we're doing, the world is still condemning us. I just watched a British interview, Jon Snow vs (and, I mean that literally) the Israeli Ambassador to Britain. First of this, this guy didn't hide his bias. He called the Kassamim, "pathetic things that never hurt anyone". He was attacking the Ambassador, calling the air strikes in Gaza acts of terror and collective punishment. We haven't even done anything. We've used all the "restraint" a nation should have to muster at a time like this, and the Swiss are making declarations that we're violating the Geneva Convention. My point being, this is and has been since the Intifada started in 2000, a lose-lose situation for Israel. When we show restraint, we're still using disproportional force. When we're aggressive, we warmongering occupying oppressors. It's as if the world actually expects, because the Palestinians are such oppressed and aggrieved people, that when the Pals are shooting at soldiers and non-combatants, they shouldn't shoot back. This being the case, the world has complete blinders on as to who we're dealing with, and it is only just and in complete accordance with Jewish law that Israel declare the war it promised to declare after the first Kassam fell on Israel, and blast these guys all to hell, because at this point, we have everything to lose and nothing to gain but more and more and more blood shed and death. No matter what, Sderot residents could be being gunned down by the dozens right now, Israel WILL NEVER HAVE THE MORAL HIGH GROUND in the eyes of the world. As always, we Jews have no-one to rely on but ourselves. It's time Israel stops thinking she has any real allies that will actually care that Jews are being slaughtered in her own back yard and, for the love of all that's good and holy, take out the trash and demand to be counted for.

    Darn, that felt really good.
    -OC

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  10. Granted all of that. (And I was thinking about writing pretty much the same stuff, save I didn't see that interview.)

    HOWEVER... I think that the objective of these couple of weeks is to get it as close to a higher moral ground as possible. Either it will work, or it won't. EITHER WAY, when the terrorists still continue, Israel should do as is necessary [including all-out war] to rid Gaza completely of terrorists and anything but "humanitarian" services. Then, they should leave, and close the door behind them, and let the Palestinians build their own land up with NO support from Israel (or die not trying).

    Israel has nothing to "lose" by waiting right now. Either everyone hates Israel no matter what, and this will merely establish that once and for all; or some places have a bit of common sense and will finally come around, which will help when Israel finally does take action.

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