Wednesday, July 11, 2007

Fantasy Baseball

Now, for all those still reading... here's the situation. I play in a 12-team, rotisserie-style 5x5 [R/HR/RBI/SB/Avg; W/S/K/ERA/WHIP] standard league with daily moves, one player at every position, 2 Util spots, 7 P spots which can be used for anyone, and 5 bench spots (also 2 DL spots). The one [smart] rule that's added in is a 1,250 innings pitched maximum, and a 162-game maximum for each position. That's the background.

My team, after a couple of recent trades (Germano for Thome; Harang & Johjima for Victor Martinez), now has the following makeup:
  • Hitters:
  • C MartinezV (1B), 1B Garko, 2B JohnsonK (OF), SS Peralta, 3B Teahen (OF)
  • OF Holliday, Beltran, Byrnes
  • Util OF Pence, Util Thome
  • Bench - C Ross, 1B Loney, 2B Barfield, 1B-3B-OF Blake
  • Pitchers:
  • CL - Nathan, Papelbon, Putz; RP - BellH
  • SP - Santana, Sabathia, Carmona, MillerA
  • DL - JohnsonJ
I've already used 825 of the 1,250 innings. My ERA is average, my WHIP just behind the pack. Obviously, I'm leading in Wins [55 - me, 51 - 2nd, 47 - 3rd, 45 -4th], Saves [84-68-67-60], and am second in Ks [703-702-601-596]; on a per IP basis, my Wins are second, my Saves are second and should win out, and my K's are fourth. It's why the trades of both Germano and Harang didn't require a second thought: With a 1250ip maximum, 3 closers, a middle reliever, and CC and Santana alone should get me about 350. Spot starts of Carmona and perhaps Miller will easily hit the max.

My weak positions are at 2B and 1B, where Garko has been sitting randomly and been really hurt by Hafner's struggles; I got a bit messed over at 2B, though Barfield is playing much better now and I was able to pick up a dropped Kelly Johnson last weekend. My team is up there in average, I don't really care about SBs much, and in the pack in RBIs; I'm last in runs though catching up, and down in HRs but passing the second pack finally.

The question is if I should stay with the team I have now, or try and trade for even more hitting. Victor and Thome are new additions, Beltran and others [Thome, Barfield, Teahen, Garko] should be much better this half, I don't see anyone who should be dropping this half... and unless I can trade Miller and Johnson for a better 2B, I don't see any moves I can make without losing CC or Johan. I think I should stand put, for sure until Aug 5 (Aug15 trade deadline), probably until the end. I've gotta run, but let me know if you think I'm wrong (and if you need more information)!


  1. zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

  2. That Thome trade is a joke. HOw can someone in your league pull that off?? I am in 2 12 man leagues and he is on waivers in both. The guy hasn't won a game in a month. Also Harang for 2 solid cathers, one is elite. WHat kind of league are you in? Taking adavantage of new owners?

    Cathers who hit are extremely rrae, and after the first 10 or so pitchers, there are around 50 who are interchangeable.

    I understand that these guys might want to make a run at k's or w's so they need more pitchers, but they can get the same results or at least pretty close to it, from waivers instead of giving up start hitters.

  3. A^2 - :P

    Chuck - Our league is hyper-competitive and there are no good P's available. Throw in that the guy who has Thome is leading or a couple away from leading in R, HR, RBI, and it's not as crazy. He really needed the pitching; I was happy to give it to him for Thome.

    But yeah, I thought I got a deal, too. :)

    The other one you read wrong: I gave him Harang & Johjima; he gave me Martinez. It's a downgrade at C for him - but not a terrible one, and a great boost to his pitching.

  4. Yeah, the guy who gave up Thome had a 10 or better in all five hitting categories. He has a 5 in wins, K's, and ERA, and a 7 in WHIP.

  5. Problem. Youre relying on Barfield, Teahan, and Garko to improve during the second half, for which there is no evidence on which to rely.
    Barfield is not proven as a second year player. Put up a solid season last year, but thats about it. Factor in his 61/10 K/BB ratio ( yes, thats 61-10!!!!) and there is no reason to believe that he will improve.
    Similarly, Teahan has not consistently proven anything, along with Garko.
    The only guys you can say or assume will have a great second half are proven studs who are significantly underperforming (Manny for one).
    Sorry Ezzie, yet again you will not finish top 3.

  6. Harang does not "give a great boost to his pitching" as you say. Harang is one of the most overrated fantasy pitchers out there along with Dontrelle. Harang does not do anything particularly well. His whip is good, but that will rise. He'll end up with 15 wins. His ERA is just OK and plays in a horrible park. His best asset is his K rate, which again is decent to good.

  7. One by one...

    Garko is the easiest one. When Hafner's done well this year and last, Garko has thrived. When Hafner's struggled, Garko has been kinda blah. It really is that simple sometimes.

    Teahen is another guy who has done well but been hurt by the guys batting around him. Now that Gordon is playing better, Teahen is getting more opportunities. If this other guy they're bringing up is anything near what they claim, that should help him a lot, too.

    Both of those guys had much better second halves last year. Neither has been in much of a slump in their stints in the majors.

    Barfield is pretty simple, too. Look at his average month to month. .162 in April; .278 in May; .317 in June. And his K's are dropping fast: 15 in 74 at bats in April, 28 in 108 in May, just 12 in 104 ABs in June.

    Oh, back to Teahen... after a rough April, he's batted .305 and .303 in May and June. Notice that the last four months of last year, he also batted between .300 and .320. I'd say that that's his norm.

    And finally, back to Garko. His Avg, OBP, Slg, and OPS are all about exactly the same as last year. The difference is who is [not] on base this year, how many outs, etc. You don't think that a revitalized Hafner helps Garko get 50 RBIs in the 2nd half?

  8. Harang 5.9k's per start is 14th in the league. Of the 13 people above him, only 7 have a better WHIP; 6 a better ERA; and 5 more wins per start.

    The four that beat him in all of those are: Peavy, Santana, Sabathia, and... Javier Vazquez.

    Oh, and just for fun, let's compare him to 5.9k/start guy Brandon Webb, your personal favorite: Harang .5 wins a start; Webb, .4. Harang's WHIP: 1.18. Webb's: 1.27. Harang loses in ERA, 3.67 to 3.37, but I'd still take him over Webb for the second half.

  9. You'd take Harang over Webb in the 2nd half? You crazy man! Im surprised you would write this in a public forum where everyone can see thereby losing your credibility to write sports based blogs.
    Interesteing that you point out Vazquez beats Harang in those categories. I actually would have never realized. Although Vaz has been awesome recently.
    I understand the numbers that your 3 young players had last year but you cannot jsut assume they will repeat this year. Young players are prone to slumps. Where'd Zach Duke go? He was THE BEST PITCHER IN BASEBALL for the 2nd half of '05. Now, he's not ownable. For you Tribe fans, where's Jody Gerut?
    My point is, to say that a player WILL improve can only be based on evidence of a larger sample size than what you're giving, which is half a season.

  10. We'll see on Harang v. Webb. Of course, I'd really be happier just having my own guys, which is what I'm actually doing.

    Yes, young players are sometimes flash in the pans. I think that's usually more true of pitchers and power hitters who can be analyzed for certain tendencies or holes than contact hitters, though.

    I'm not guaranteeing better second halves; I just think there's more reason to think that they will than they won't, especially as two have been steadily improving since rough Aprils and the other has been pretty solid all year, just without the slugger's protection in front he normally gets.