Tuesday, November 07, 2006

Take A Guess

I'm starting to think that the GOP will hold the Senate by a better margin than I had originally. I wrote there that I thought it would be 51-49 GOP (assuming you count the two independents as Democrats). I now wonder if the GOP can't keep 52-54 seats... At the end of the day, instead of concern by the GOP over whether they will hold their lead, we might see the Dems worrying about the closer-than-projected wins in NJ and PA. It wouldn't shock me at this point to see the GOP win four of the five tossup states (MD, MO, MT, RI, VA) and a win handily in Tennessee and Arizona.

Even the House may be closer than anticipated. I saw a great post yesterday which actually analyzed the projections for the House, and couldn't understand mathematically how people were coming up with a 35-40 seat swing based on individual races. They projected a much tighter flip of about 20 seats, which would give the Democrats the House - but barely. According to the latest polls, the Democrats should have a 218-187 lead right now with 30 "toss-ups" [evenly led by Dems and Reps]. Polls being what they are, I'd guess that about 25 of those or the "leaning Democrat" go to the GOP, making it 223-212, or a 21-seat swing. [It would take too long to go through the races individually to have any real clue - these House predictions are complete estimates.]

What do you think will happen today with the Senate and House:
  • 1) GOP holds both houses
  • 2) Dems take both houses
  • 3) GOP holds Senate, loses House
  • 4) GOP holds House, loses Senate
  • Why?


  1. 3....Repubs keep senate with 52-53 seats lose house by 6

  2. Okay, not at all related - but I just figured something out - were you waiting for the bus at a few minutes past 9 this morning? Did I see you? (I was parking, and then walking with my 1 year old). Yay - I met a blogger! (maybe)

  3. When I left work, I thought it would be 53-47 GOP in the Senate, 220-215 Dems in the House.

    So far, the GOP is doing better than that based on the exit polls (and I will *never* understand exit polls).

  4. RM - Yep, that was me! You should have said Hi! :)

  5. Will do, next time - considering your bus stop is about 10 feet away from my front door, I'm sure I'll run into you again. Since you must live so close, please let Serach know that I have a washer and a dryer that run basically all day - I'd (seriously) be happy to throw in loads for you guys until your apartment/laundry situation is resolved!

  6. RM - We live about a minute walk away... You're welcome to go visit Serach & Elianna today and say Hi! :)

  7. Hey - wait - did you guys move into the Wasser's apartment?