Tuesday, November 07, 2006

So Far, So... Unsurprising?

UPDATE4: Tennessee finally called for Corker. I'm not sure what took them so long... it took forever to call Kyl in Arizona, too. Meanwhile, they've been calling some Dems really early. The Dems are now at +23 in the House. Best race of the day, by the way: Florida's 13th was decided by 364 votes with 100% counted. I'm guessing that someone's going to make sure to recount that one. [That's like one big shul worth. Crazy!]

UPDATE3: I know many people are going to look at this as a big Democrat win, but it's really not. It's not a great Republican hold, either. The simple message from this election: GOP - you've screwed up on too many issues lately to hold power. But we still believe in your approach, and the Dems don't have one, so we're not going to give it to them, either.

The results as of now seem to be a 22-seat pickup by the Dems in the House with 75 seats still not called. That should end up being about a 24-seat pickup when all is finished.

In the Senate, it appears I was right the first time a week ago - the GOP looks to be winning in Tennessee and Missouri, losing in Montana, won in Arizona, lost in New Jersey and Rhode Island, and Virginia is going to be what the GOP wants to give itself the majority outright. They don't need an outright majority, as Vice President Cheney is always the tiebreaker, but it's always better. Regardless, Virginia is currently favoring Webb by about 2,000 votes and will probably be sent for a recount. (Groan.)

When we get up tomorrow morning, it should be 50-49 GOP with Virginia outstanding.

UPDATE2: Unfortunately, I was only looking at some of Virginia, not the whole thing. He's up by 6,000 votes with less than 2% left, but that 2% is in Webb-heavy land. Odds are this one will need a recount. Ugh. Meanwhile, in Maryland, the networks had called it for Cardin. Many people looked at it the same way I did: How can you call it for Cardin when Steele is up with 50% of the votes in?! The Washington Post retracted their prediction, and it looks like it may be a really close one. Meanwhile, Chafee seems to have lost to Whitehouse in RI, while Corker has a nice lead on Ford in TN.

It looks like the Dems will take the House, having taken 19 seats so far according to projections with just 100 left to call. Barring some losses in the West (which are possible but unlikely), they'll be in control. The GOP seems to be holding onto the Senate, though.

UPDATE1: Since nobody else will, I'm calling Virginia for Allen. He's up by over 30,000 votes with 91% of the precincts in, and of the 5 counties that still haven't finished, he leads in two of them of the votes that were already counted. There simply aren't enough votes left for Webb to catch him - he'd need about 60+% of the remaining votes to pull it out, while he's been getting 49% all day. I don't know who this Parker guy is who has about 23,000 votes, but if he is taking from Webb, he's going to have a lot of really upset Democrats down his back tomorrow.


DeWine and Santorum are out, in unsurprising results. Menendez seems to have held off Kean in New Jersey. Hilary Clinton and Ted Kennedy held their seats. Pretty much as expected so far, with the Dems having taken two seats from the GOP.

The big one right now is in Virginia, with George Allen leading Jim Webb by 6,999 votes with 70% 4,970 votes with 72% 12,440 votes with 74% of the precincts reporting. That's less than 1%. More updates to come...


  1. Can't believe we lost OH, RI, and PA.


    And the Dems are gonna control the House.

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  3. Webb has really gained. Much more than I thought possible. Fairfax county has one more precinct left to report.

  4. I cant believe u called it for Allen!! I think u misread 3,000 as 30,000. This one is looking wayy too close to call.Brad

  5. Moshe - What's surprising about those states?

    But yes, ouch.

    CE, Anon - Same here. I misread earlier reports: While he was up 30,000, I only saw Arlington and Charlottesville as left, not Fairfax and a few others. I didn't realize there was more than one list of counties to scroll through (duh, why do all their counties start with A B or C...).

    It's definitely too close to call for tonight. I'd hate to be either of those men...

  6. politics makes me sleepy... and that's just australia... the american election is waaaaay off my radar!!

  7. You got this one really wrong Ezzie. It's going to come down to Montana (Virginia will stay in the Webb column) and Tester is up by almost 7500 votes with only a few rural areas to count.

    House=Dems by 11-14
    Senate=Dems by 1

  8. Well, I did go to sleep...

    I thought Talent had Missouri in the bag. Wow. Then again, I thought Burns was out. Should be annoying news coverage for a while...

  9. so, tell me, were people really surprised or did the pundits call it?