I was speaking to Serach's uncle yesterday on the bus to Manhattan after the bris - he is one fascinating character with a wealth of information and (sometimes true!) stories at his fingertips. He related over a number of very interesting stories, half of which he specifically ordered me not to write about, and some very interesting insights.
One of the topics was the next Presidential election [there go half the readers...]. He discussed something that is very interesting, and something which I would be in great favor of - not because I'm a big fan of the guy per se, but because I like what his running will mean to the future of this country. If Barack Obama or someone as liberal as him wins the Democratic nomination, and Newt Gingrich or someone as conservative as him wins the Republican nomination, watch Mike Bloomberg run as an independent from the middle.
Think about it: He has all the money he needs to run such a campaign. Obama is far too left for most Americans; and most people are wary at this point of anyone from the conservative right. He's a social liberal, which puts him in touch with most of the country; he's an economic conservative, which puts him in touch with most of the country. While perhaps nobody will love him, there's something there for everyone to like... and he'll be perceived better than the alternatives. This country could sorely use a centrist third party - it's about time.
What do you think?
Gingrich won't win the nomination (too boring, too intellectual, too many personal problems) and I have my doubts about Obama, too. I don't think his liberalness will be a problem for him in the general election. He doesn't look or sound like a liberal stereotype as Kerry and Gore do, and he's very adept at connecting with an audience like Clinton. He also talks a good bipartisan talk.
ReplyDeleteWhich liberal positions does he hold which are unpopular among moderates? I think Obama will seem to them like a breath of fresh air after all the partisan sniping.
I don't think Obama has a chance- he's too young- give him a few more years. McCain will win the nomination long before Gingrich ever will- so I don't think this scenario is likely, but my crystal ball is cloudy and I'm not supposed to be using it anyway...
ReplyDeleteJA - I was just giving examples, but you're wrong on Obama. Hilary's camp thinks Obama may be the best thing for her nationally, as it will make her look more moderate than she really is.
ReplyDeleteAmishav - I agree, except Obama made a mistake - he became a Senator. He can avoid a lot of floor votes for two years; he can't do it for six. The biggest problem for Senators when they run is that they have an identifiable record of voting on bills... that's why Governors usually win Presidencies.
McCain simply isn't liked by all that many Republicans - I'm amazed that people aren't realizing this yet. Gingrich, for all the fun people poke at him, actually has stances that are pretty popular with most Americans when it comes down to it, even as a staunch conservative. I don't think he'll beat some others (say, Brownback of Arizona) when it comes down to it, but he won't be knocked out early by any means, and I think he may outlast McCain.
Bloomberg would make an awesome president, is one of the few politicians who might be able to headline a strong 3rd party nowadays, and might even be electable (I have strong doubts about Giuliani on the national level). However, too much has to go right, so it probably won't happen.
ReplyDeleteI'm going to go with Bill Richardson over John McCain in a Clintonesque walk.