Thanks to the invitation of a friend and former blogger, I was able to listen to Rudy Guiliani speak today at the New York Sheraton near my office. I wasn't sure what to expect, to be honest; as this friend knows, I'm currently not favoring anybody in the 2008 elections, though I have already decided which candidates I do not like and why.
The room was small, holding perhaps 300 people, but was full. I was surprised by the large number of Orthodox Jews there, particularly Chassidim, including one old family friend; there must have been over 30 frum people there. The stated purpose of the gathering was to show the strong New York support Giuliani has, then having him speak and answer a few short questions.
After a few others spoke (generally short and well) about his leadership, a few of his accomplishments as mayor and how that translates nationally, and the support they were giving him, Giuliani himself spoke. [I'm not going to mention much of what he talked about in this post - perhaps a later one if/when I get a transcript.] I was surprised by a number of things, starting with his demeanor. I expected him to be cheesy and extremely political/guarded with certain sound-byte type statements... but he wasn't at all. He was actually interesting, speaking in a very straight-forward way about what he thinks needs to be done and why, and explaining that nothing is perfect. He also was honest - particularly in the Q&A - about issues which he doesn't yet know enough about. One of the most important features was his ability to give detailed, explained responses and statements - essentially the reverse of what many (on both sides) have been complaining about Barack Obama and a few of the Republican candidates.
As one person noted in an e-mail list I'm on, he's finally gotten past trying to play a lot of the political games, and has started to simply say "Look: This is what I believe, and [if applicable] did for eight years as mayor. This is how I'd do it to accomplish the same goal when I'm President." More importantly, he's not trying be anything he's not anymore, which I felt he was doing as recently as about a month ago. He also discussed a couple of points which I think are very important, notably that the Republican Party shouldn't approach elections with numerous states viewed as losses before they've even begun; as I've discussed before, even if the GOP won just the strong Bush states and picked up NY and one tossup, they can win the election. Just by being able to challenge in the other states makes it almost guaranteed that the GOP can win; sweeping a few turns the election into a landslide.
Obviously, his biggest problem is winning a primary against right-wing conservatives. The fact that he's "electable" will sway many; if he can imply that social issues should be states issues, he'll pick up a lot more. One of the most important points of the night was noted by a man seated behind me in conversation: Whatever he himself may feel on abortion, while he was mayor, Giuliani's record was actually decently conservative - both reducing the number of abortions by a large margin and reducing funding for it.
It will definitely be interesting to see how this election season continues to shape up, and obviously it's way too early to be definitive about favorites. But for the time being, at least, I'm substantially more inclined to vote for Rudy Giuliani than I might have been. Will he be the next President of the United States? Time will tell.
He seems like a good candidate for you. Indeed if he could bring the GOP back to sane social rhetoric and policies, it might be worth having him in office. What I worry about is that he'll follow in Bush's footsteps abroad and with our civil liberties at home. From what I've heard and read, he's kind of an arrogant prick who's good at getting things done. That can have pros and cons, but at this time, the cons scare me worse than the pros.
ReplyDeleteIndeed if he could bring the GOP back to sane social rhetoric and policies, it might be worth having him in office.
ReplyDeleteInteresting.
What I worry about is that he'll follow in Bush's footsteps abroad
Well, as I know you're not a fan, you should worry. He's very straightforward about his foreign policy. But as I disagree, that's fine with me.
and with our civil liberties at home
Depends what you mean by that. He is pro the Patriot Act, and emphasized the need for interrogation et al - while also emphasizing LAWFULLY. Both of which I'm a fan of.
From what I've heard and read, he's kind of an arrogant prick who's good at getting things done.
I've heard that as well, though he actually came across as pretty humble (the real kind, not the political kind) today. As you said, that has pros and cons, but I generally lean to the pros on that one, particularly when the guy's generally right and a great decision-maker, which he seems to have been at least on 9/11 and in general as mayor.
Just saying hello to our friend who invited Ezzie. We miss you.
ReplyDeleteDid anyone ask him why he placed the city's command center back at the WTC despite being told that was a bad idea by his commissioner for emergency manemgent. Or did anyone ask him about Bernie Kerik? I'm always amazed at how he gets away with fluff questions at local events.
ReplyDeleteHey SL - would've invited you, too, but I don't think you would've made it in time ;)
ReplyDeleteEzzie - great post, I'm still working on getting that transcript, glad you enjoyed it and I hope you can attend many more of our events in the future!
I'd pick him by process of elimination and by logic.
ReplyDeleteProcess of elimination. His two biggest rivals for the nomination are probably McCain and Romney. McCain is two old. Period. America has grown accustomed to having young blood (W and Clinton) in the office. An old grandfather ain't gonna win. I think Romney's issue is his religion. I believe that America is simply sick of having a religious figure in office. That leaves Rudy.
Logically: Focusing on the economy and security made Rudy a huge success in NY. America knows this. By leaving the social issues to the states, he removes himself from many of the touchy issues that separates the liberals from the conservatives. He is essentially running as a liberaterian in the sense that he is conservative in his economical politics and liberal on social issues. However, he doesn't have to worry about social issues because he'll leave that to the states.
But being socially liberal does hurt Giuliani's popularity within his own party. He appeals to Democrats because of this (and he also left the office of mayor with huge public approval because of his handling of 9/11), but he does have to first win the nomination within the Republican party. His social agenda could hurt that.
ReplyDeleteI think this will turn out to be a far more interesting primary/caucus season than the last election, frankly. It'll be fun to watch how it all pans out.
"But being socially liberal does hurt Giuliani's popularity within his own party. He appeals to Democrats because of this (and he also left the office of mayor with huge public approval because of his handling of 9/11), but he does have to first win the nomination within the Republican party. His social agenda could hurt that."
ReplyDeleteYes. This is precisely why it will be easier for him to win the general elections than his own party's primaries.
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ReplyDeleteLess we forger that as a former DA, when he assumed position as Mayor, he lowered the crime rate (in NYC) by a good 87% and implemented policies to keep it that low. Today, I believe, it is still at or close to that number. As a side note, I know people involved in the rescue effort at WTC, who said they have never meta kinder, more compassionate man, I can attest to that, as I met him myself, on a 10th grade trip to Gracie Mansion. I think the "Pompous A**" that he comes accross as, is really a front,and a facade, to look more political and professional, as we know... "nice men, come in last"!
ReplyDeleteSer(andez)
The reason for moving the command center to 7 WTC was so that it could be walking distance to City Hall. In retrospect it looks like a bad decision, but I hardly think its disqualifying. Even today's hit piece in the NYT acknowledged that the decision made sense. (And that credit for that decision is rather muddled anyway.)
ReplyDeleteI have a friend who worked there (and used to work for Jerome Hauer the subject of the Times article) who told me that it was Giuliani who deserved credit for revamping the city's emergency services. He was quite impressed. They immediately moved to their backup site after 7 WTC was evacuated.
Let's hope that by '08 he or some other nominee still has a Republican Party to lead. Things are breaking down for them in Congress and they have virtually ceased to exist as a party in many eastern states. In my midwestern county (Marion County IN =Indianapolis) the Republican party organization has become a joke.
ReplyDeleteLance - The Q's weren't fluff by any means, putting him in nice spots on what to say about Carter, Bush, and immigration. The latter especially is one that conservatives are not thrilled with his stance on.
ReplyDeleteMoshe - I agree on McCain. Not only is he too old, he's greasy. I don't trust him and he moves his opinions too much for my liking. Romney I'll disagree on; the religion doesn't bug people as much as you think, and his stances overall are pretty solid.
But if Rudy can establish that the social issues are something he'll leave to the states, he'll be a big favorite in the primaries.
The Apple - Agreed. I guess the previous comment.
Moshe - Yes.
Serach - That's certainly possible. Being a pushover doesn't look great for a President.
SD - Well put. I think that we'll see people try to dig up a few loners who were upset with how 9/11's cleanup was taken care of (and the last Q yesterday cited Michael Moore's documentary about health care and the sick from the WTC cleanup), but overall, it's well known that Giuliani did an incredible job.
Great line by Giuliani yesterday at the end of his response to that Q: "As I said to someone the last time I was asked if I saw a Michael Moore documentary... 'I don't need Michael Moore to tell me about 9/11' ". :)
Bob - Certainly a concern, but I liked what he had to say about the GOP in general yesterday. More on that if I can get a transcript.
I remember when, during the first war in Lebanon (1982), a rally was held in Kew Gardens Hills to support Israel. Ed Koch and Mario Cuomo, who were competing in the Democratic primary for Governor of New York, showed up and spoke. I was much more impressed with Cuomo as a speaker. He turned out to be pretty useless as a governor. Giuliani at least has a track record as an administrator, but don't assume that he can manage in Washington just because he says some of the right things ow.
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