Sunday, October 30, 2005

NFL Picks - Week 8

11/1 UPDATE: I won!

I've decided to put these up every week to show how my system is working... I talked about this previously here. I have adjusted my system to take the Aikman Efficiency Ratings (available on FoxSports) of each team, add together their offensive and defensive ratings, and add 10 ratings points to the home team. I then choose as a winner the team with the higher rating in each game, and weight the points based on ratings differential. For further details, read the previous post on this. Meanwhile, here are this week's picks:
[Home teams in CAPS; (my)Winners in Bold.]

Arz 12 DAL W
Gb 10 CIN W
W Oak 1 TEN
Was 8 NYG W
L Cle 3 HOU
W Chi 7 DET
Min 14 CAR W
Jax 2 STL W
Mia 5 NO L
Kc 9 SD W
Phi 4 DEN W
L Tb 13 SF
Buf 6 NE W
Bal 11 PIT W
As of this moment... my Browns - the 3 - are tied with Houston [edit: down a FG], while Jacksonville, which I have 2 against, just pulled ahead of St. Louis. Oakland, which is my 1, is only up by 2 over Tennessee. The others all have solid leads to blowouts going on. Interesting, no?

[UPDATE:] St. Louis just pulled ahead of Jacksonville, so my own Browns are my only losing team at this point. Ouch.

[UPDATE:] Browns tied it up. I'm running at 6-0-2.

[UPDATE:] Bears sacked Garcia, ran it the fumble for a TD. Browns down 3, but driving with 2 minutes left. Again, 7-1 with the Browns the 1... EDIT: Fumble was overturned, so Bears-Lions is still tied. Dilfer just underthrew 4th-and-18 to a wide-open Antonio Bryant and it was tipped, and the Browns lose. Ugly.

[LATE GAMES:] San Diego and Denver are walking all over KC and Philly, and the others I'm losing tight. 7-1 in the early games, thanks to the Bears defense. I've lost just 3 points - not bad... gotta love math. [MORE:] Lost the tight ones, but now if NE and Pittsburgh both win I'll win my pool for the week. Other people lost more on the late games...

{Update} Nice! Both the Pats and Steelers won, so I won this week. We'll see if this happens again next week (hopefully! :) ). As a note, last week I was in a rush and did it quickly - I used my system, but adjusted it the wrong way, and tied for first. Had I done it properly, I believe I would have won then as well. As the weeks pass, the system improves, because flukes have less weight.

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  1. The Browns were once a decent team, of course that was prior to my birth 5 decades ago.

  2. LOL. Ouch. They were good (and cursed) in the 80's as well... :(


    We like to refer to him as "Buckteeth."

  4. Ezzie, how much do you win for winning your pool?

  5. About $80... varies week to week, depends how many guys are in.