Even the House may be closer than anticipated. I saw a great post yesterday which actually analyzed the projections for the House, and couldn't understand mathematically how people were coming up with a 35-40 seat swing based on individual races. They projected a much tighter flip of about 20 seats, which would give the Democrats the House - but barely. According to the latest polls, the Democrats should have a 218-187 lead right now with 30 "toss-ups" [evenly led by Dems and Reps]. Polls being what they are, I'd guess that about 25 of those or the "leaning Democrat" go to the GOP, making it 223-212, or a 21-seat swing. [It would take too long to go through the races individually to have any real clue - these House predictions are complete estimates.]
What do you think will happen today with the Senate and House:
- 1) GOP holds both houses
- 2) Dems take both houses
- 3) GOP holds Senate, loses House
- 4) GOP holds House, loses SenateWhy?