Tuesday, November 07, 2006

Take A Guess

I'm starting to think that the GOP will hold the Senate by a better margin than I had originally. I wrote there that I thought it would be 51-49 GOP (assuming you count the two independents as Democrats). I now wonder if the GOP can't keep 52-54 seats... At the end of the day, instead of concern by the GOP over whether they will hold their lead, we might see the Dems worrying about the closer-than-projected wins in NJ and PA. It wouldn't shock me at this point to see the GOP win four of the five tossup states (MD, MO, MT, RI, VA) and a win handily in Tennessee and Arizona.

Even the House may be closer than anticipated. I saw a great post yesterday which actually analyzed the projections for the House, and couldn't understand mathematically how people were coming up with a 35-40 seat swing based on individual races. They projected a much tighter flip of about 20 seats, which would give the Democrats the House - but barely. According to the latest polls, the Democrats should have a 218-187 lead right now with 30 "toss-ups" [evenly led by Dems and Reps]. Polls being what they are, I'd guess that about 25 of those or the "leaning Democrat" go to the GOP, making it 223-212, or a 21-seat swing. [It would take too long to go through the races individually to have any real clue - these House predictions are complete estimates.]

What do you think will happen today with the Senate and House:
  • 1) GOP holds both houses
  • 2) Dems take both houses
  • 3) GOP holds Senate, loses House
  • 4) GOP holds House, loses Senate
  • Why?