I once argued that one of the reasons President Bush would eventually go down as one of the most effectual Presidents in history was because of economic policy. Unfortunately, since that point, he has been unable to push most of the points that most people were arguing for at the time, such as revamping Social Security, but he has successfully accomplished another key point:
The biggest trick is to let his policies stay in place for as long as possible. Most of his policies take the right approach--long-term fixes so problems do not recur; planned-out ideas that do not rely on external revenues (taxes, etc.) or fixes to sustain themselves. Unfortunately, many politicians rely on short-term fixes that make people happy enough to keep poll numbers high. It will take a dedicated president to let Mr. Bush's policies ride their course and build up this country and the rest of the world.While Bush has been unable to add to his tax cuts, he has fought any suggestion to 'try this' or 'try that', and the economy has remained strong because of it. (Lest someone try to point to the housing market, it is important to remember that in a country of free choice, little can be done about stupidity save increasing education, which Bush has tried to push for while others have argued we should 'focus elsewhere'.) This patience and 'sticking to his guns' has not only slowly brought people to grudgingly admit* that the tax cuts worked, that lower taxes have increased growth and in turn tax revenues (gasp!), etc., but a good WSJ piece this morning notes that major Democratic candidates are finally changing their tune somewhat. Yes, they still want to try those short-term fixes that do little but make them popular, but there's a marked difference between that and what they wanted to do in the past.
Education, balance, and patience. Who'd have thunk that those would work?
* I'm sure someone will argue that "people don't think the economy is doing all that well". A friend noted recently that this is garbage. Polls asking people how they are doing economically all come out very favorably; polls asking how they think the economy is doing overall come out far more in the middle, leaning toward 'not so well'. That just means that the media does a nice job of telling everyone about the "struggling economy" even when the economy isn't struggling... and why should people know any better about others' finances? I trust hard numbers and people talking about their own situations far more than polls asking people on the street how "they think" the economy as a whole is doing.
Yeah, but look what's coming down the pike in November. Once we go back to a democratic president (and I fear very much that we will this year), its over.
ReplyDeleteAnd the economy may be the least of our problems.
They don't call me Doomsday for nothin'.
"I trust hard numbers..."
ReplyDeleteUh huh, and that started having a relation w/ polls (of any kind)...when?
G - read again. That's part of the point.
ReplyDeleteAre you kidding? Do you know how much money Dubya wasted on this war in Iraq? (Aside from the 4000 dead American soldiers and the tens of thousands injured.)
ReplyDelete$275 million per day
$4,100 per household
almost $500,000,000,000 total.
Bushy will go down as one of the most fiscally irresponsible presidents ever.
"And the economy may be the least of our problems."
ReplyDeleteWhat will be our biggest problem exactly?
Ahem,
ReplyDelete"I trust...people talking about their own situations"
what would you call that?
The only thing it makes sense to trust in a poll.
ReplyDeleteWhether the economy is doing well or poorly is determined by hard data, not what people think about their situation. I haven't been following the numbers, but how much was our GDP growth the last quarter?
ReplyDeleteN - That's on a national level. In terms of how people are doing on an individual level, short of looking at their finances, trusting their opinions makes the most sense. (This assumes reasonable people who understand their own economic situation. Weak, I know, but hey, what else do we have? :) )
ReplyDeleteN - That's on a national level. In terms of how people are doing on an individual level, short of looking at their finances, trusting their opinions makes the most sense. (This assumes reasonable people who understand their own economic situation. Weak, I know, but hey, what else do we have? :) )
ReplyDeleteIsn't the national level the aggregate of all the individuals? If we have poor growth as a country, that probably means individuals aren't doing as well as they think.
Yes/no. Weight in any one sector can bring up or down the average, even if very few individuals are affected.
ReplyDeleteAs a whole, I'd look at GDP to see how the US is doing; but to see how individuals are doing, GDP is less meaningful.
I think we've gotten off track...! What are you and/or G asking? What I think? In short (hey, I'm busy!) -
I think the economy is and has been doing very well in a very stable fashion as a whole. GDP overall is up. Inflation is pretty low. Unemployment took a hit the last couple months, but it's still pretty stable/low. (Also, a lot of the slow lately is the housing market.)
An argument often used is that while GDP et al may look good, a majority of individuals are still negatively being impacted. (Hence the polls.) This would be a valid issue to be addressed if true - if most people are being negatively hit while a few are producing/striking it rich, that's a legit problem. But the point is even this is not true in this situation - it is a false perception caused by media ramming it down people's throats. So what we're left with is most people saying their own situation is good, and overall numbers that are good, which leads me to conclude that the economy as a whole is good. Make sense?
An argument often used is that while GDP et al may look good, a majority of individuals are still negatively being impacted. (Hence the polls.) This would be a valid issue to be addressed if true - if most people are being negatively hit while a few are producing/striking it rich, that's a legit problem. But the point is even this is not true in this situation - it is a false perception caused by media ramming it down people's throats. So what we're left with is most people saying their own situation is good, and overall numbers that are good, which leads me to conclude that the economy as a whole is good. Make sense?
ReplyDeleteSure. I agree that if GDP and other economic indicators are doing well, it's ridiculous to claim that individuals are doing poorly without evidence. So I'd agree that if the economic indicators show we are doing well, we are probably doing well.