Take A Guess

I'm starting to think that the GOP will hold the Senate by a better margin than I had originally. I wrote there that I thought it would be 51-49 GOP (assuming you count the two independents as Democrats). I now wonder if the GOP can't keep 52-54 seats... At the end of the day, instead of concern by the GOP over whether they will hold their lead, we might see the Dems worrying about the closer-than-projected wins in NJ and PA. It wouldn't shock me at this point to see the GOP win four of the five tossup states (MD, MO, MT, RI, VA) and a win handily in Tennessee and Arizona.

Even the House may be closer than anticipated. I saw a great post yesterday which actually analyzed the projections for the House, and couldn't understand mathematically how people were coming up with a 35-40 seat swing based on individual races. They projected a much tighter flip of about 20 seats, which would give the Democrats the House - but barely. According to the latest polls, the Democrats should have a 218-187 lead right now with 30 "toss-ups" [evenly led by Dems and Reps]. Polls being what they are, I'd guess that about 25 of those or the "leaning Democrat" go to the GOP, making it 223-212, or a 21-seat swing. [It would take too long to go through the races individually to have any real clue - these House predictions are complete estimates.]

What do you think will happen today with the Senate and House:

• 1) GOP holds both houses
• 2) Dems take both houses
• 3) GOP holds Senate, loses House
• 4) GOP holds House, loses Senate
Why?

Do Your Duty II

Some other good J-blog posts on Election Day:

• Judith is live-blogging the election from Manhattan.
  
• YidWithLid has a bit to say about a few candidates around the country if you're pro-Israel.
  
• VA: Meryl Yourish wants your write-in. (Wouldn't it be hilarious if she beat out some listed candidates? Or actually affected a close outcome by stealing votes? She could be the Ralph Nader of Virginia!)
• NJ: Chaverai ties today's elections to the gay pride parade in Jerusalem. Heh.
• NY: Orthomom has a great post quoting R' Yakov Horowitz and a very funny but pointed poem by Ogden Nash. BeyondBT has R' Horowitz in full.
  
• --: Sephardi Lady is shocked that some people aren't registered to vote. [ducks]
• NY: DAG asks people to think before voting.
• NY: Wolf says it simply.
• CA: Robert notes the terrorists' pick.
• GA: Basil explains why he's voting for at least one Democrat.
• MD: SoccerDad is picking Steele, and with good reason.
• CT: Kesher Talk's Van Wallach cast a wide net this morning in Stamford, CT.
• OH: I wish I was still able to vote in Ohio, where my vote was actually worth something. No, Mom, this doesn't mean that I'm going to move there just so it would be.
• NY: TownCrier's picks are up.
  

And, for all those who would much rather laugh than talk politics on this Election Day [snort], Kasamba is safely in the UK trying to make sure her parents don't move to Boca from Monsey. Hilarious as always.

Do Your Duty

Go Vote today. Ironically, we think that neither Serach nor myself are able to vote today, as we are still registered under our old address. If we have the time (Elianna's sick, so there's a good chance not) we'll go anyway to see if we can - it's the same polling place, after all - but I have a feeling we're going to be shut out of this election. It's actually strange - according to the Board of Elections, they keep track through change of address forms filed with the USPS. We filled one out, so we should have gotten registration cards here... but we didn't.

If you haven't decided who to vote for yet and you live in New York, here are the suggestions of SerandEz...

[Ez: To be clear where I'm coming from, so you take this into account before reading my suggestions... I am a registered Democrat; I currently prefer the GOP on a national level, for economic, defense, and most social issues; I generally prefer conservative judges who emphasize personal responsibility; and I usually prefer local Democrat politicians. In 2004, I voted for President Bush, abstained regarding Schumer, and primarily Democrats the rest of the way. And yes, I know I don't need to reveal any of this.]

Governor:

• Eliot Spitzer (D)
• John Faso (R)

I actually thought I'd go with Spitzer at first, but after checking out his website vs. Faso's, I'm going with Faso. Spitzer's site says "Day One: Everything Changes" - but doesn't really say what he plans on changing. His interview talks about how great the state used to be and could be... but doesn't say how. It's spoken like a man with a large lead who really doesn't want to say anything to get himself in trouble. (He's not stupid.) He has one small link to the page which actually discusses the issues, and those discussions are very vague in how to address the problems. Faso's site, meanwhile, discusses front and center the tax cuts he wants to make and why, how he wants to reform health care, improve public education, and cut government spending.

State Comptroller:

• Alan Hevesi (D)
  
• Christopher Callaghan (R)
  

This one is pretty simple. Hevesi has been nailed by the Ethics committee for having a chauffer for his wife and not reimbursing the state for it, and even the NY Times, who endorsed almost no Republicans, endorsed Callaghan. I actually heard Callaghan speak a few weeks ago to a small gathering - he's an accountant who clearly knows his stuff, even if he's not exactly Mr. Suave Cool out there. As the Times noted: But one of the main jobs of the comptroller is to make sure people who handle taxpayers’ money understand the very clear line between their personal expenditures and the public treasury. There is no way Mr. Hevesi can fulfill that vital role anymore. I'd say that Callaghan can.

Attorney General:

• Andrew Cuomo (D)
  
• Jeanine Pirro (R)
  

An underwhelming pair of choices, but Cuomo seems to have done a decent job over the years while Pirro seems just a bit nuts. I can't claim to know much about this one, but that's my feeling.

US Senator:

• Hilary Clinton (D)
• John Spencer (R)
  

This is a straight-up "against" vote. I'm voting against Hilary. As far as I know, Spencer isn't accused of any wrongdoing, so I have no qualms in saying I'd rather have him in office than Hilary Clinton.

Other offices:

• Anthony Weiner (D) - 9th Congressional District

I'm not sure what else is in my area, so I'll hold it there. If you're in New Jersey, please vote for Kean over Menendez. Go Vote!

Tags: Election, 2006, Clinton, Hilary, Spitzer, Faso, Spencer, Callaghan, Hevesi, Cuomo, Pirro, Weiner, New York, NY, Kean, Menendez, Senate, GOP, Democrats, Republicans.

Poor Baby

The smiley Elianna below has a wonderful attitude, considering that she has a high fever and is "on the verge" of pneumonia, along with slight pink eye in her right eye (hence the squinting in the pic below). She is now on antibiotics and getting eye drops, and should be much better soon iyH. Through it all, she has barely cried or complained - a little less smiley than usual, that's all. What a good baby!

On a separate note, please daven (pray) for Eliyahu ben Nitza Malka, my cousin in Israel who apparently got seriously injured falling off a swing (I believe) at a playground over the weekend. My cousin is a rosh yeshiva (head of a men's seminary) there and often gets asked to speak around the country; this time, he decided to bring his children with him for a small vacation. It is his son, who is probably about 9 by now (wow), who fell.

May the Force of Duct Tape be with you...

Quit your kvetchin, Ezzie. I wasn't going to post this, but since there seems to be no action on the J-blogsphere... I present another Comp I paper, which of course got an A-. Sorry it isn't deep and philosophical, but I was in a crabby mood when I wrote it.

Whenever I’m asked the clichéd hypothetical, “If you were stranded on a
desert island with only one possession, what would it be?” I always respond,
“Duct Tape.” Sure, a bottle of Evian or a cell phone might be more of a
necessity for survival, but a roll of the silvery adhesive could very possibly
aid in my rescue as well as provide me with entertainment during those lonely
hours.

Since its development in 1942, duct tape has proven to be useful, as well
as entertaining.
Due to its durability, duct tape is often used to fix broken items. Almost every home nowadays has something which only functions because of a strategically placed strip of tape. I’ve seen duct tape used to keep broken car doors from falling off, to help baby-proof a home, and to seal off leaky pipes. My parents’ house, which is quite old and in need of repair, sports several examples. Years ago, the linoleum floor in the kitchen split right down the center seam leaving an unsightly and possibly dangerous gap. Replacing the floor was beyond our means so we had to find a more economical way of fixing it. My resourceful mother resolved our dilemma using a roll of brown
duct tape. To our family’s surprise, the tape has held up pretty well. During our yearly Passover cleaning, the old tape is stripped off, and a new layer is put down in its place. I’m beginning to think it adds more character to our house than any fancy tiled floor could.

In addition to keeping our belongings from falling apart, duct tape can
provide hours of amusement and fun. A more innovative use for duct tape was
introduced to me in the eighth grade. Duct tape clothing and accessories are
easily created by folding a piece of tape in half! I remember looking in
amazement at the wallet my friend’s brother had fashioned for her completely out
of duct tape. It was a simple model, with a large pocket for bills and two
smaller ones for credit cards and the like. My mental gears sprang into action.
Within a few weeks I’d made a personalized wallet for each of my friends,
complete with a coin pouch and clear ID pocket. Soon my repertoire had expanded
to CD cases and even a small knapsack. Recently, I heard that Duck brand duct
tape sponsors an annual “Duct Tape Prom” featuring gowns and tuxedoes made
solely from their products.

Duct tape can be fun in other ways as well. College students have been
known to play pranks on their roommates by taping them to their beds or chairs.
A newspaper article described a school that came up with a rather unique
fundraiser. The principal stood on a chair that was placed against a wall and
some crafty seniors taped his body to the wall. After his body was secured, the
chair was removed, and for a mere quarter students could add another strip of
tape to help hold up their principal.

Whether you have a broken windshield, are looking for the perfect accessory
to add to your wardrobe, or just have some extra time on your hands, duct tape
can provide you with the answers. The possibilities are endless!

All Quiet on the Blogging Front

Weird. It's really quiet in the J-Blogosphere today... almost no posts at all. The few that there are seem to discuss the gay pride parade that is coming up this week in Jerusalem. Where is everybody? Is there some Yom Tov that I don't know about?

Anyways, a very happy birthday to IPayTooMuchForMyHair! Go buy yourself something you have too much of, like shoes. :P

Elianna + Crib = Sheer Joy

Ez: Not feeling so well today, which could mean more or less posts depending on my mood. :) Meanwhile, this was too cute to not post...

Yeah, yeah. Elections are tomorrow, there's still plenty to say regarding shidduchim, honesty, ED's, education, and budgeting, and of course football. But this post is completely unrelated to any of that, which is why you may actually smile from it! :)

Things are finally coming together in our new apartment (the one we've been in for two months already). Perhaps by the end of the week, we'll even have a kitchen, with a sink, and cabinets, and a dishwasher, and an ability to hook up a washer... who knows?! One thing we *did* finally do was put together Elianna's crib, now that we had all the pieces and tools to do it. If y'all want to see the rest of the pics, let me know (hi Mom!), but for now I'm just putting up one from this morning - Elianna in her crib for the very first time. (And LOVING it.) Say 'Hi!' Elianna!!!

Saying It Best (Mazel Tov!)

Yeshiva World sums up the top news item of the day perfectly:

Mazel Tov to Mr. Saddam Hussein upon being sentenced to death by hanging for crimes against humanity.

Roughing It

UPDATED: I noticed that the Jewish Star, which puts short recaps and standings from our league, also posts a small picture from each week. This past week, they posted a picture of a couple of guys from TwistCafe. Great blocking, guys. :) [You may need to click on the image to see it.]


Our football team went up against the only other undefeated team in our division today, and without one of our better players. Just to give you an idea of what kind of game it was, they scored four touchdowns in the last 15 minutes of the game alone...

Okay, that's not really what kind of game it was. We stopped them early with a couple of goal-line stands, including one 99-yard interception return for touchdown and another pick to set up another score. We were up 21-0 early in the second half, warning each other not to get too cocky, when one of their guys got a bit rough and a couple of our guys got upset. Everyone cooled down, but we started making some mistakes on D and it was 21-7. We scored quickly, going up 27-7, but they responded with another score to make it 27-14. We again scored quickly, making it 33-14, and our quarterback threw a perfect pass for the 2-point conversion - but 5 yards in front of the endzone. Whoops. Suddenly, their quarterback broke free from what should have been an easy sack and ran it most of the field for a TD, our QB got hit while throwing and they intercepted it, and they scored yet another TD with 1:05 left... but a couple runs and we ran out the clock. Final Score: TwistCafe 33, Northshore 28.

It was never really possible for them to win - we didn't realize how little time was actually left - but it made the ending a bit too close for our tastes. Ah well - whatever the score, we're 3-0, atop the division. :)

92 and counting...

Haveil Havalim #92 is up at Jerusalem Board Games. Check it out!

Elianna in Purple Pic

 

Chocolate Chip Cookie

[cross-posted to Our Kids Speak]

We had a couple of friends for Shabbos this week, and one told this great story...

She works in a special-ed school near the UN with young kids. They often walk to a park nearby to play, and on the way, they pass the UN buildings. There are usually protests of some sort taking place, and one of her students was asking her all about it - what do the signs say, etc. The student - I want to say he was about 5? - asked who the protesters were, and she noticed that one of the signs said Taiwan, so she answered him, "They're from Taiwan." He looked up at her and said, "Wow Ms. -----, you are one smart chocolate chip cookie!!"

Nobody's Perfect

...and people need to realize that. The common thread between the two discussions that have been happening on this blog [shidduchim (matchmaking) and EDs (emotional disorders)] is that in both cases, people expect some imaginary or perceived level of "perfection" that simply doesn't exist. In the case of shidduchim, many people - especially guys, from what I know - are looking for something that simply doesn't exist. They're looking for the "perfect" girl or guy, the one who does everything just so and looks that good and has the perfect personality and those skills.

With ED's, it's similar but obviously worse: Young people especially feel they need to be just so and look that good and have the perfect personality and those skills... and they're unable to understand how to deal with it in terms of themselves, and often do so in destructive fashion. While the person looking for a spouse simply needs to wake up to reality, a person with an ED has a much tougher time - first understanding, then dealing with the issue.

Pobody's Nerfect recommended three excellent videos. They're all very different, dealing with different aspects of the issue, and they're shorter than a couple of Borat skits, so take a look... [after the jump]

Distorted:

Perception:

Courage:

Ezzie's Blog Roundup, 11/1: Pure Entertainment

These aren't all the good posts I've read over the last 36 hours or so, but they should entertain you... Meanwhile, I've decided that some bloggers are really hilarious - especially in real-life.

10) Elder of Ziyon argues what actually is worthy of greater discussion... those who divest from Israel should - if they meant it - invest in the Palestinians. Build up their economy if you want to help them; don't just gripe at Israel.

9) KollelMama may have had a typical atrocious flying experience to Israel, thanks to the sadly common chillulei Hashem, but at least she went to the kosher Subway! :)

8) Life-of-Rubin (via JewishShiksa) now found the Matisyahu video on YouTube. Pretty good imagery...

7) BeyondBT has a good "only in Israel" chicken story. Heh.

6) Jameel sometimes scares me. Now, even when he eats chocolate... (though his co-workers might be scarier!)

And now, on to the top 5:

5) Bein Adam L'Chaveiro used to be friendly with a guy he'd debate on occasion. That same guy just came in second place in the Iran Holocaust cartoon contest. :::shudder::: Some people are sick.

4) Jack got a haircut. (Hilarious!)

3) Jameel returns with the best non-post I've seen in a while.

2) Wolf guests at SephardiLady's place: The benefits of losing a credit card. (Funny and important.)


And 1) RafiG has the new DietCoke & Mentos video. Two notes on this: a) These guys are hilarious, talented, and are having more fun at their jobs than anyone I've seen in a while. b) Chana, I can't believe you didn't find this first.

Enjoy!

The King's Reign

I'm not sure why I didn't write about this yet, but last night's Cavs game was a case of the Cavs and Wizards picking up right where they left off - a tense nail-biter with the Cavs coming out on top. LeBron was great as always, filling the statsheet up with 26 points, 10 rebounds, 5 assists, and 2 blocks while Larry Hughes did as well (27/9/5/2 steals). The best part about how they played: Great rebounding from the 2nd quarter on, leading to a 20-board advantage for the game; and solid defense for most of the game. The worst part: Free-throw shooting.

The Cavs should be in or winning at a great clip with at least 6 players who can really haul in boards on a consistent basis - LeBron, Hughes, Gooden, Z, Vareajo, and Marshall. Between the 6 of them, that's an average of about 45 rebounds a night - more than most teams get. Factor in that they're always crashing on both sides of the floor, and you realize just how difficult it is for other teams - there's almost always four good rebounders on the floor for the Cavs at a time (if not five), while most teams have 1-2 - at best, three. But if you can't hit free-throws, you can't put games away. And the tighter the game, the more fouls there will be at the end of the game... and if you can't hit them, it gets even closer. The Cavs shot 50% from the line last night. They shot almost 48% from the field. Why would teams let them take shots that are worth 2-3 points each at a 48% clip when they can let them shoot for one at a 50% rate?

They won't. It's time to start practicing the basics.

Speaking of EDs...

Chana pointed me to this excellent article, as it relates closely to what is being discussed below. Excerpt:

Last week, my eldest daughter called me from Israel, where she is studying for a year in seminary, crying and terribly distraught. A girl she was friendly with from another seminary had died of anorexia. She was 17 years old.

...

The religious seminaries in Israel and the United States are filled with girls who are obsessively self-conscious about their looks. They know that as they approach marriageable age the famous teaching of the Eishet Hayil (Woman of Valor) prayer, written by King Solomon, that "charm is deceptive and beauty is naught; a God-fearing woman is the one to be praised," has been utterly rejected by the yeshiva students of our time, as they preoccupy themselves primarily with a young woman's looks, just as much any secular guy.

Read the whole thing.

"The Best"

A great comment by PsychoToddler on the "Are you prepared to lie to the shadchan about..." post below, after the thread went on some good tangents:

...it's very similar to "The Best" system that I wrote about last year. Everyone wants the best. Why should my daughter settle for third or second best when she can have The Best?! Why should I even consider spots 2 and 3 on the list. Only #1 is of interest.

The problem is, no one is "The Best". No one is perfect. We all have one flaw or another. And to reduce a person to a bunch of checkmarks is something that I find offensive.

When you meet someone, and decide whether it is someone you like, you don't base it on one or two things. You take the good, you counter balance with the bad, and decide how you feel. Yes, there may be a few deal breakers. But when you hear about what people in the shidduch system consider to be "deal breakers," you really have to wonder about where their priorities really are.

Take a look at your spouse (if you have one). I'm sure he/she has many wonderful qualities. Ignore them for the moment. List 3 bad qualities about them. Family history, their education, bad habits, physical imperfections. Write them down on a piece of paper. Now imagine someone had shown you this before you met him or her. Would you still consider meeting your future spouse? Or would you move on to the next one down the list. Be honest.

Now do the same for yourself.

Too Close?

[Ez: This is a rambling, boring political post. I know most of y'all hate that, so feel free to skip down. :) ]

I really like this graphic from the Wall Street Journal which shows the breakdown of the Senate as next week's elections come closer. It's clear, concise, and shows how it got its information.

To start, two-thirds of the Senate are not up for re-election. Of these 67 seats, the GOP has 40 and the Democrats have 27. In the next category are expected seats: The GOP is expected to win seven, the Democrats eleven. This brings the totals to 47-38 in favor of the GOP. Add in the two independents (Joe Lieberman and Vermont's Bernie Sanders) who will lean Democrat, and it's 47-40. [Question: Do these two count when determining the majority leader? If it's 49-49, can the Democrats appoint the majority leader? What if it's 50-48 GOP - is that a tie, or a GOP hold? Or does it go to Cheney? Anybody know the rules?]

Next, the WSJ lists "leaning" seats. Of these seats, it is currently 5-1 Democrats. Looking quickly at the seats and the current leads, it's easy to see why they didn't make it outright wins - but it's pretty clear that they will in fact go the way they say, making it 48-45 if you include the independents. That leaves seven tossup seats. RealClearPolitics' site calls two of those seven "leaning Democrat" and leaves just five "tossup" seats.

Those five seats are Missouri, Montana, New Jersey, Tennessee, and Virginia. As of now, I think the GOP will win Tennessee and Missouri [in a nail-biter], lose Montana and New Jersey, and that the GOP will need George Allen to hold off in Virginia to keep 51 seats. I actually feel that Kean has a shot in New Jersey if he could just get out and explain his stance on issues, particularly the economy - I heard him speak about three weeks ago for less than ten minutes to a small group, and he was excellent. But for some reason, those points don't seem to be what his ads have focused on, and he's not picking up enough ground, though he's picked up a bit.

I think the best-case scenario for the Democrats is to get up to 49 seats of their own plus the two independents against 49 GOP seats. More likely, it's going to be 51-47 GOP excluding the two. It could even be higher for the GOP - I'll reassess in a couple of days. The real question, however, will be the House.

Photo of the Day

Life-of-Rubin's got it. It's funny whatever your feelings are.

Ezzie's Blog Roundup, 10/30: "Little Miracle"

We just got our camera back again, thankfully. There are no pictures of our little miracle to put up yet, but I loved this image:
Holding and throwing your child up in the air, to their glee, is one of the nicest pleasures in life. It always brings a smile to everyone's face. Need a smile? Look at the slideshow to the left... wait for the last picture. Awesome, isn't it? :) Anyways, that picture came courtesy of...

10) Balaboosteh. She has a number of photos from Sculpture by the Sea, and they're really great [if you're into funky art].

9) Life-of-Rubin has the new Matisyahu video.

8) CopyEditor notes just how important the USO is to our troops. Who doesn't enjoy Chuck Norris?!

7) Staying light, SoccerDad's daughter is getting some interesting accessories for a ballerina. Hilarious.


6) JBM's roundups are pretty good...

And now, for the top 5:

5) TafkaPP dissects October's Cry. She is right - we can't have different standards for Arab-Israelis on issues like this. Sharp post.

4) JoeSettler discusses Secular Coercion & Sexual Harrassment. It's a very pointed post - while I'm not sure if I agree with everything in the post, the basic gist is in line with ideas I've expressed in the past.

3) Judith writes about the Elephant in the Room. A must-read for anyone who discusses, or is into, politics or psychology.

2) SephardiLady has the next one of her budget posts up. Please, read it. It's for our own good.

1) Finally, Gil posted about one of the most important songs ever. If you're a parent or plan on being one, read the lyrics.

Enjoy!

Tags: Ezzie, Blog, Roundup, Israel, Elephant, GOP, Kids, Cat's in the Cradle, Harry Chapin, October's Cry, Budget, Orthodox, Orthonomics.