Tuesday, January 10, 2006

Chopped from the Knee & Overthrown

Well, it really wasn't that hard to predict, but it's time to pat myself on the back:
The Giants will lose to the Panthers, because their defense isn't good enough to stop the Panthers consistently and the Panthers defense is good enough to stop Tiki Barber enough while cover Eli Manning's passes. Watch for interceptions on overthrown balls.
Let's see... 3 interceptions, and the two that I saw video of both looked overthrown. Surprising? No. A good friend, InfiniteBassur, had questioned that suggestion before the came, claiming it lacked statistical basis. Even if you can prove Manning overthrows the ball a lot, and the Panthers get a lot of interceptions, it's hard to say that will definitely result in Carolina picks. He was right, it's not a perfect assumption - but it's still logical to say that the Panthers would play back on certain throws and if they see it's being overthrown, wait on the ball.

Meanwhile, I'm sick of hearing that the Bengals lost because Carson Palmer got hurt. They lost because they gave up 31 points, period. Kitna actually played pretty well, and had the defense made a couple of stops and not let the Steelers back in the game, they would have been in far better shape. Falling for 2 trick plays and muffing a FG snap don't help much, either.

Next week is a far harder week to pick. I'm going to wait until I read and hear a bit more before I make my predictions.

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