Thursday, October 19, 2006

Is This 2002 All Over?

(Hat tip: SoccerDad)

Before I get back to work... I said a few days ago that I think the polls - which currently are predicting leads or close races for many Democrats - are very wrong. Today, Instapundit linked to Dan Riehl's post about 2002 which actually tracked many of the close races and did this exact comparison: The pre-election polls vs. the actual results. Excerpts:

Max Cleland, what can I say? Result in bold. Are you noticing a pattern here?

Cleland 49 46
Chamblis 49 53

My, my .. the beat goes on.

Kirk 48 43.3
Coryn 49 55.3

And going back to Oct. 22, these pearls of wisdom from DailyKos via Charlie Cook:

Cook notes that Dems have a good shot at taking GOP seats in Arkansas, New Hampshire and Colorado, while the race in North Carolina has become unexpectedly competitive...Consider, perhaps the surest takeover bet is Arkansas, a GOP seat. And if the GOP loses New Hampshire, which I believe is likely, then forget it. There's no way the GOP can take the Senate.

Too bad Dems lost all of the above by 5 - 10 points.

Those are just some of the examples. Other examples were off by as much as 16%. One common theme: All the polls were off to the left.

Something worth remembering... both when deciding whether to vote or not, and when wondering why all the polls were wrong.