Pages

Thursday, October 19, 2006

Is This 2002 All Over?

(Hat tip: SoccerDad)

Before I get back to work... I said a few days ago that I think the polls - which currently are predicting leads or close races for many Democrats - are very wrong. Today, Instapundit linked to Dan Riehl's post about 2002 which actually tracked many of the close races and did this exact comparison: The pre-election polls vs. the actual results. Excerpts:

Max Cleland, what can I say? Result in bold. Are you noticing a pattern here?

Georgia
Cleland 49 46
Chamblis 49 53

My, my .. the beat goes on.

Texas
Kirk 48 43.3
Coryn 49 55.3

And going back to Oct. 22, these pearls of wisdom from DailyKos via Charlie Cook:

Cook notes that Dems have a good shot at taking GOP seats in Arkansas, New Hampshire and Colorado, while the race in North Carolina has become unexpectedly competitive...Consider, perhaps the surest takeover bet is Arkansas, a GOP seat. And if the GOP loses New Hampshire, which I believe is likely, then forget it. There's no way the GOP can take the Senate.

Too bad Dems lost all of the above by 5 - 10 points.

Those are just some of the examples. Other examples were off by as much as 16%. One common theme: All the polls were off to the left.

Something worth remembering... both when deciding whether to vote or not, and when wondering why all the polls were wrong.

9 comments:

  1. Egads, I hope not. But you/he have a good point about the inaccuracy of exit polling recently. It probably reflects some sort of sampling error. I hope it's not that the voting is rigged.

    ReplyDelete
  2. I was wondering if someone would say something like that. There was a great article a while ago ripping into the (moronic) RFK article comparing polls to results.

    The problem is not the results. The problem is the polls. (I recently heard Mark Halperin of ABC discuss something similar.) It's not that the GOP is systematically able to rig the voting across the country by 5-16%. It's that polls of 1,000 people who pollsters could reach and which ask certain Q's in certain ways often get skewed results. It may also have to do with media hype or media desire to see certain candidates in office, though I don't see how that would effect the polls - just the reporting of them.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Easy question, Ezzie--pollsters add leading questions to try to get the results they want. Do you remember how many exit polls in 2004 had Democrats coming out ahead? Just for the newscasters to have to backtrack and announce that the Republicans actually won when they were done with the vote count. [evil laugh]

    ReplyDelete
  4. Ezzie,

    I said it probably reflects sampling error, didn't I?

    With the paperless voting machines though, there's really no way to know.

    ReplyDelete
  5. These polls are done by the MSM and are basically wishful thinking. They hope through these polls which make it always seem like the sky is falling it will keep members of the voting Right at home, thinking it's hopeless anyway. What they often fail to realize is that most conservatives aren't as wishy washy as liberals and they almost always come out to vote. I'm with you that it's not going to be as bad as they are predicting, and I think there is a good chance we may keep the house also.

    ReplyDelete
  6. I said it probably reflects sampling error, didn't I?

    Yes. My point was more directed at others who actually think what you said, though. And I'll agree with you on the paperless voting machines - there needs to be a better way.

    Chaim - I agree. I actually want to do a study about something tonight... you may like it. :)

    ReplyDelete
  7. These polls are done by the MSM and are basically wishful thinking. They hope through these polls which make it always seem like the sky is falling it will keep members of the voting Right at home, thinking it's hopeless anyway

    Ezzie, I can't believe you agree with this. You really think the MSM's polls reflect wishful thinking on the part of the MSM?? That's absurd.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Even Fox News has the Dems ahead across the country. Is that wishful thinking on their part, too??

    ReplyDelete
  9. Ezzie, I can't believe you agree with this. You really think the MSM's polls reflect wishful thinking on the part of the MSM?? That's absurd.

    I should probably pinpoint what I agree with, eh? I was agreeing that conservatives come out to vote and don't stay home because the polls imply it's not close. I think that the MSM skews how they report the polls due to their own wishful thinking. Halperin (no conservative) said that the fact that journalists lean liberal IS a problem. He does NOT want conservatives OR liberals in a news office.

    One problem with national polls, including that Fox one: They could all be meaningless votes in meaningless places. By definition, turnout will be higher in closer races and lower where it's a blowout.

    ReplyDelete