I've been holding off on this post for a while, waiting to see how the shifting plays out from other parties to PM Ariel Sharon's new one, Kadima, Israel's old battle cry which translates in English to "Forward!"
I'm still processing what's happening, but I think a basis is needed to understand how this all will play out. Start with the previous Knesset's makeup: Ariel Sharon is Prime Minister as head of Likud, which has 38 (of 120) seats.
Seats by party:
Now, let's recount based on the new switches from party to party, before anyone actually votes. The current MK's in Knesset break down like so:
- Likud 38
- Labour 19
- Shinui-Mifleget Merkaz 15
- Shas 11
- National Union 7
- Meretz 6
- National Religious Party 6
- United Torah Judaism 5
- Democratic Front for Peace and Equality (Hadash) 3
- One Nation - for Israeli Workers and Pensioners (Am Ekhad) (merged with the Labour ) 3
- National Democratic Assembly (Balad) 3
- Yisrael Ba`aliyah (merged with Likud) 2
- United Arab List 2
25 Likud (including Yisroel B'Aliyah)Let's start with the easy ones, and work our way up.
19 Kadima
18 Labor (including Am Echad)
15 Shinui
11 Shas
9 National Union
6 Yachad
5 United Torah Judaism
4 National Religious Party
3 Hadash
3 Balad
2 United Arab List
UAL, Hadash, and Balad make up the Arab parties. Their representation will likely remain the same, so give them all 8 seats.
Yachad (formerly Meretz) has lost support since Beilin took over as head. Give Yachad 3.
Shinui, with the advent of Kadima, has pretty much lost a lot of its standing. It's slightly to the right of Kadima, but to the left of what remains of the Likud, which theoretically should be good for it. But most Israelis, even secular ones, aren't as anti-religious as Shinui, and while many voted for Shinui in 2003 to vote to the right without voting for Sharon, they can now do so by voting for Likud, even if it is a little further to the right than it had been. Give Shinui 8.
Many are predicting Labour to do okay. I don't understand this at all. Think about it logically: Netanyahu built up the economy incredibly, by moving it away from all the things that Amir Peretz (the new Labour head) demanded. By being tough and ignoring Peretz's socialistic desires, the Israeli economy grew tremendously - and fell 5% just on the news Netanyahu resigned from the government. Most people will not be voting for Labour on its economic policy, though it's sure to get a few votes. On national security, Sharon has completely marginalized Labour - there now exists almost no difference in views between Labour, at least based on Mitzna's platform, and Kadima. Peretz cannnot be much different from Mitzna, and though they may be a little more inclined to make concessions on Jerusalem or other issues, they cannot seriously expect to win seats away from Sharon on that basis. They will pick up a couple old Meretz seats, but I think Labour is in for a ruder awakening than the last elections. Give Labour a generous 16.
Shas is a bit of a wildcard. If they have their act together, and emphasize to their prospective voters how much strength they could have in a Sharon government if they're big enough, they could pick up a few seats. But without Aryeh Deri, this is unlikely. Give them 12.
UTJ shouldn't change. Give them 5.
What about the Likud? Without Sharon, they're a party without a leader. However, they're a party with a plan. The focus will be - no matter who wins - to try and create as strong a party as possible. Will they win? Without a true leader, I don't see how they have a chance. But they will have to run as if they're trying to win the election, and will portray Sharon as a sellout that can't be trusted. They'll emphasize to the right that to ensure a right-wing coalition, Likud must be strong: And they'll be absolutely correct. They'll keep all the hard-line Likudniks, which are many, and add in a few right-wing voters as well. They may even keep some Sharon supporters who want to make sure Sharon keeps a right-wing coalition. They won't win, but they will be way ahead of Labour, which is far more important. Give them 25.
There is no true NRP anymore. With the leaders part of National Union, NRP will gather a few votes only because some people will not relate to any other party all that well. I'm therefore going to include them with National Union, who will garner a lot of interest. Really, National Union should gain seats - they're establishing themselves well, despite no true "big names", and they've gotten the respect of the national religious. However, it will be hard to draw people out of the Likud, as Likud is still a well-oiled machine that will remind people well of the dangers of a weak Likud. National Union will put up a good fight, but I can't see them picking up more than two more seats over the 11 they and NRP already have. Even then, I say give them 12.
For all those doing the math at home, this leaves an astounding 31 seats for Kadima. "Ridiculous!", you might say. "No projection has that!", you laugh. But think about it: Kadima is made up of Sharon's Likud supporters, which is well over 1/3 of them. Add in a number of Shinui seats and a large number of Labour seats, and he's already holding in the mid-20's. Toss in his strong leadership: Peretz can match him on leadership but not on substance; the Likud on substance but not on leadership. If there are debates, Sharon will likely crush the opposition, getting Peretz to team up with him on some issues and the Likud head to team up on most other issues. Picking up a few more seats on that alone is not out of the question. He may even pick up a couple from people who want to strengthen his party in the hopes he will take the religious parties and not Likud (or Labour on the other end) as part of his coalition.
This was Part I. Check out Part II.
You are in America and therefore you underestimate Israeli love for all-things-socialist (for parts of the Israeli society, not all of it). Unlike in America, where socialism is a dirty word (as it should be) that's simply not the case in Israel or W. Europe.
ReplyDeletePeretz's economic policies, as damaging as they are, combined with his bringing in Avishai Braverman, Ben-Gurion U President and economic professor, are popular among traditional labor voters and even some non-Labor voters. Hence, the Likud candidates (besides Bibi, of course) have actually been sounding a lot like Peretz lately in a bid to differentiate themselves and challenge Netanyahu for the Likud leadership.
I do understand it; and I think that the Likud members who are doing so are shooting themselves in the foot. I used to debate the Israeli economy (when I spent two years there) with my cousins, who felt that Netanyahu's "heartless" capitalist policies would be terrible for them and most of the country.
ReplyDeleteIn the end, I believe I was right: Netanyahu's privatization of many businesses has dramatically helped the Israeli economy. To have the market drop 5% on the news he resigned is incredible, and shows the recognition that the markets at the least had of Bibi's abilities and philosophies. The country is far better off with Netanyahu's policies, and while I understand the desire to differentiate from Bibi to have a shot at the Likud's top spot, trying to get him on finance is a poor way of doing so.
Many Israelis may still love the socialist policies, but I think more of them have come to the realization that it's just not in their best interests. The ones who have not will still vote for Peretz.
Thanks for the comment, feel free to respond! Curious what you think of the rest of the piece...
Ezzie,
ReplyDeleteAmechad is probably right. Whether the economy improves or not is always open to interpretation (look at how liberals claim the economy is terrible in the US). Moreover even if it wasn't, people still will vote against their economic interests in many cases (such as rich liberals voting for tax hikes). And sometimes people will vote for economic policies that are clearly counterproductive (rent control being the best example). And this is just in the US where the electorate was not raised on the socialist ideals of everyone having an equal right to all types of government benefits. It's unlikely that the country will make a sharp turn away from socialism in this election.
That said I disagree with your breakdown in some cases.
Likud will get hammered. Look at the polls. The country today is experiencing a period of calm and unparalleled international support. When that happens the people move to the left. It's always been like that. No terror means more liberals. Likud's platform of no Palestinian state west of the Jordan is just not appealing to the vast majority of Israelis. And the ones who do support it are going to vote hard-right anyway. The Likud's only selling point is economics, but if Bibi loses they won't even have that.
Labor will do well because of the reasons I outlined above. Well, being somewhere around 20-25 seats and dwarfed by Kadima. But they'll be the second largest party because they will support splitting Jerusalem and giving up almost all the West Bank, positions that years ago would have been a death knell, but are now more accepted because of the Taba offer and the Geneva Initiative.
I agree about Yachad, Shinui, and the NU/NRP group. It's sad to see the NRP become a single issue party (and insane on that one issue as well).
The religious parties should remain the same. People never stop supporting those parties because they often agree with everything they do anyway (daas torah). Or because they vote for them for ethnic reasons (secular sephardim voting for Shas).
Kadima is going to win big and the Likud is going to get hammered. For me it's a double-edged sword. If Labor joins the coalition, Sharon will have an easier time on the security and diplomatic front, but will have to continue the socialist policies. If Likud joins with Bibi at the end, socialism might finally come to an end, but Sharon will be handcuffed on making peace. There's no winner.
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
ReplyDeleteNephtuli, great comments. Thanks.
ReplyDeleteEconomy - While almost everything you say is true, I still think the reverse will happen. True, people can interpret the economy as they see fit - but in general, most people are pretty honest about their interpretations of it. It's generally in their best interests. Even with the left in the US today, they admit the economy is doing very well; they just say that it's not going to last, even though indicators are all strong.
In Israel, I didn't hear anything about the economy that was negative. Even the left there begrudgingly admitted that Netanyahu had done a great job; and while it will take a while to fully get the socialist kick out of Israel, I think people are going to be surprised by just how many already have switched. Charedim used to be big fans of socialism in Israel - and this is just 3 years ago - but since Netanyahu's policies worked AND they survived the initial tough times, they're far more pro-capitalist. While yes, they weren't voting Labour before either, I think that the same will be true among secular Israelis as well.
Terror: This is the only other issue I disagree with you on. No terror does not mean more votes for the left, as you say. I think the reverse is true: People in the middle who liked what Sharon was doing will not lean left; they may lean right. The security that Sharon proudly points out was because of the right cracking down, followed by the right pulling something the left never could have with Gaza. I think people recognize that in Israel, the peace overtures must come from the right. From the left, there's too much infighting for it to be successful.
In addition, the economic reasons will keep some away from Labour.
Those differences will (IMHO) translate into the movement I said in the post. I think everyone pretty much agrees on the size of the other parties, it's only a matter of how the 3 major parties divide those 72 seats or so. I think people are going to be surprised when Kadima/Likud pick up 3/4 of them.
Ezzie,
ReplyDeleteI believe you are ignoring the extent of the delusion on the Left. Even if today the Left admits the economy is doing well, how long did that take? Has the Left ever admitted that tax cuts help the economy despite it being obvious to anyone who took Economics 101?
And it's much worse in a socialist country like Israel. They have this misconception that economic growth is irrelevant if it hurts the poor. A third of Israel is below the poverty line. Statistics like that will be all over the news.
And all of this assumes that Bibi wins and the Likud adopts a free market policy. Remember, in the last government, Shinui was very pro-growth. Why vote for Likud if you don't know what you'll get, especially when the Likud's security position is so untenable, when Shinui is pro-growth? The people who think a Palestinian state is so undesirable will just vote for National Union.
Historically no terrorism has meant a vote for the Left. Barak was elected after a year of no deaths to terror. Bibi beat Peres because of terror. Sharon won because of terror. Rabin won after the first Intifada died down, etc.
The only reason Sharon is considered "right" is because the spectrum has moved. Twenty years ago no Israeli leader would have ever proposed splitting Jerusalem or withdrawing from 97% of the West Bank. Today those positions are mainstream. Even Rabin didn't officially support a Palestinian state. A large majority of Israelis support one now.
Sharon will get votes because he's in the middle on security. He supports giving up somewhere between 85-90% of the WB. Labor, under Peretz, will probably support landswaps and the like, so they'll be a little more to the left. But if Likud sticks to its no Palestinian state position, it will be left behind.
But that's part of my point: It's the middle-right that will be the swing voters in this election. The center will vote Sharon in this election, not Peretz. Only the hard-core left or big-time socialists will vote Labor.
ReplyDeleteThe middle-right, however, have to decide between Sharon and the Likud. Assuming Bibi wins, the free-market voters will vote for him; those that are not will vote National Union if they're more to the right, Sharon if they're more to the center. If someone other than Netanyahu wins, the free-market voters may still vote Likud, or they may take Shinui.
But of that center-right group, I would venture that most of them are free-market voters. It's one reason Bibi will win the Likud primary (his speaking ability helps too), and a reason he will still draw enough support for the Likud as a second party to keep Sharon in line somewhat.