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Tuesday, October 09, 2007

Why the Yankees Lost

The most important and obvious reason: The Indians simply beat them.

In Moneyball, Billy Beane was quoted as saying that all a team can really do is get to the playoffs; everything after that is basically luck, with perhaps having a couple of great starting pitchers making a difference. I think that's basically true. (Nephtuli? NoyG? G?) Managing actually plays a small role in the playoffs - when to make moves, whom to start, etc. - and in that aspect, I think Wedge had a clear edge, helped a lot by Torre's terrible decisions, such as starting Wang.

The Indians hit about .500 with RISP in the series. That's astounding, and pretty lucky. The Yankees hit .100. That's unlucky. But the number of chances each team had to hit with RISP (27[!] to 10 with two outs) is a lot of the difference, and that comes back to simple things like walks and OBP. The Indians had a .417 OBP; the Yankees were at .300. The Indians walked 20 times, the Yankees 14. The Indians constantly had runners on base and IN scoring position, helped by 10 doubles; the Yankees didn't (just 3 doubles), and perhaps pitching out of the stretch affected things as well. Certainly the worry about wild pitches was justified after Chamberlin's.

While there's no real "clutch" in baseball, there is "choke". I don't think the Yankees really choked, though Joba might have when the bugs were flying around his head; Carmona had the same problem in the 9th yet never stepped off the mound.

Torre starting Wang was idiotic. "Let's throw out a guy who got shelled against the same team on short rest, even though guys on short rest are 12-30 since 1999 and Mussina is perfectly fine." If he were truly concerned about Mussina, he should have started him but had Wang available to come in as a reliever. I don't get why he wouldn't put (LH) Giambi up against Byrd. Wedge starting Nixon against Clemens was good. The only two players who really didn't play well in the series are two starters who are hard to replace at their positions - 3B Casey Blake and 2B Asdrubal Cabrera - and both play the field well. Wedge using his bullpen properly was great, though putting in Borowski was the only time I was nervous last night. As I discussed with the friends I was watching with last night, having Borowski as the closer who only really pitches in save situations is brilliant from a different standpoint: It means that the Indians' best relievers can be put in when you really need them, such as with runners on or to get past a rough part of the lineup, etc. Betancourt and Perez faced 70 inherited runners this year; just 9 scored. Using them and Jensen Lewis just to place more pressure on the Yankees by having them chew up those 6th-8th innings is great.

I have to admit to rooting against the Indians for one AB - hoping ARod would HR off Perez. It just stuck it more to Yankees fans who whine about ARod not being 'clutch'. I also couldn't help but enjoy the constant camera panning to ARod, as if he were at fault for Jeter grounding into double plays or Posada whiffing. Anyone else notice how ARod seems to be the only player on the Yankees (maybe Matsui, Giambi do it sometimes) who goes back to the dugout and advises his teammates what to look for, who listens to coaches telling him little things before the AB, etc.? Meanwhile, if you watch Indians' games, you see just about the whole team doing it (especially Casey Blake, Victor Martinez, and Hafner)?

There's plenty more, but that's good enough for the post. Whomever is interested is welcome to join in in the comments. :)

GO TRIBE!

Oh - Indians in 7, because I have to. Can CC/Carmona pitch 1-2, 4-5, and both be available in 7? Or at least CC in Game 7?

15 comments:

  1. One important point: The Indians pitching staff it built to really kill rallies even if guys *do* get on base (which, again, is mostly luck). They don't walk people [Byrd-CC], they strike people out [CC, Carmona], and they give up a lot of ground balls [Carmona, Westbrook].

    (If I'm not mistaken: Betancourt, Lewis, Perez are great K-BB guys and Perez induces a lot of grounders.)

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  2. --all a team can really do is get to the playoffs; everything after that is basically luck

    Yeah, basically.
    "Billy Beane himself pointed out in Moneyball, playoff series outcomes are heavily influenced by chance because of the small number of games involved and the high degree of randomness in baseball."
    http://volokh.com/posts/1156074811.shtml

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  3. I can't really argue with anything you said (or maybe I just don't have it in me?). I'm just wondering...what are you making predictiosn about? Baseball season in over.

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  4. Re: Beane's playoff/luck theory, I'm not entirely sure that's true. With regard to hitting, possibly, though I think high OBP guys will eventually play to their strengths and do well.

    However, with regard to pitching, I definitely think there are different types of pitchers, and some succeed in the playoffs more than others. You can certainly build a "playoff" pitching staff, imho, that would be less luck dependent.

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  5. I actually think Torre made the right move with Wang, as did most Sabermetically minded Yankee blogs I read. Wang is better at home and Mussina is wildly inconsistent. Frankly Wang is a substantially better pitcher than Mussina, and was probably better on 3 days rest than Mussina on 4. It didn't work out, but I think it was the right move. I thought Wedge should have done the same with Sabathia (and making his lineup weaker by moving Martinez to 1st wasn't very smart although it panned out).

    While there's no real "clutch" in baseball, there is "choke". I don't think the Yankees really choked, though Joba might have when the bugs were flying around his head; Carmona had the same problem in the 9th yet never stepped off the mound.

    I'm not sure if there's a "choke" either. Just like "clutch" it has to be proven.

    Carmona might have pitched better with the bugs than Joba, but the fact is Joba would have pitched better if there were no bugs. And that's where the luck comes in. How often does something like that happen? A playoff game was decided on a fluke occurance.

    Giambi didn't play because Matsui was hitting better, he was in a slump, and with Wang on the mound the defense was more important.

    I agree about the Indians using their best relievers in high-leveraged spots. Although I highly doubt they coopted Bill James' "Bullpen Ace" model, it has worked out for them.

    SO pitchers kill rallies. Byrd and Westbrook do not strike anyone out so they are not really rally killers. Sure they get some DPs, but they are more prone to giving up cheap hits, kind of like how the Yankees couldn't get anyone out last night.

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  6. However, with regard to pitching, I definitely think there are different types of pitchers, and some succeed in the playoffs more than others. You can certainly build a "playoff" pitching staff, imho, that would be less luck dependent.

    True. Pitchers who SO people, don't walk anyone, and don't give up HRs are generally less prone to being burned by bad luck. Hopefully next season, we'll have Joba and Hughes in the rotation doing just that.

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  7. the fact is Joba would have pitched better if there were no bugs.

    --Define better, in NY w/o any outside issues he also allowed baserunners and gave up a run.

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  8. "Hopefully next season, we'll have Joba and Hughes in the rotation doing just that."

    And who exactly will be in our middle relief??? I'm worried.

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  9. --Define better, in NY w/o any outside issues he also allowed baserunners and gave up a run.

    True, but not on two wild pitches! I read somewhere that he only had two or three wild pitches all season. The bugs obviously bothered him and given his dominance in the seventh inning, it is much more likely that the guy with the .38 regular season ERA isn't giving up a run in that situation.

    And who exactly will be in our middle relief??? I'm worried.

    I'm more worried about Rivera than anything else. Bullpen is going to be a problem next year.

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  10. G - Exactly.

    Noyam - Such a Yankees fan... :P

    It's the eventually part that's the problem. In a short series, getting on base (say) 4 times out of 20 instead of 7 is huge.

    I actually think that guys whose OBP is due to walks are better off than guys whose OBP is due to hitting, because the walks are far more controllable and therefore much more likely to stay consistent. (Hmm, someone should test that!) [Figure that while the pitching is better, it negatively impacts the guy both as a hitter and walker. But the walking part is still more in his control, and the pitcher is likely a little more careful because he's facing a playoff-caliber lineup as well. See CC Sabathia, Game 1 or Paul Byrd, Game 4.]

    I agree that you can build a pitching staff for the playoffs - see my first comment. CC, Carmona, Perez, Betancourt, Lewis are a great core.

    Nephtuli - I understand Wang is better at home, but I don't know how substantially a 3 day Wang is better than Mussina on 10. Mussina's last start was bad, but the ones before that were all pretty good; Wang had just been rocked by this very Indians lineup 3 days prior; and compare Wang vs. Mussina when facing a team like the Tribe: Wang walks guys more often than Mussina, and Mussina - while he didn't strike out as many this year - CAN strike people out when he needs to, while Wang really can't. Yes, Mussina gives up more HRs, but the Indians really aren't a mashing team. Their best HR hitters are contact guys who walk a lot, (Martinez, Hafner, Sizemore), not big swingers. (Interestingly, Mussina has also been far better in NY than out.) Finally, Mussina's one start against the Indians this year was a very good one.

    Agree on Byrd/Westbrook; hence my "in five" prediction coming in. I'm jut noting that they do have some redeeming qualities.

    Same Q as Rea regarding the bullpen. I think Joba should stay there, especially if Mariano leaves.

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  11. Yeah, agree with G - Joba didn't seem too comfortable against the Indians, though he still had good stuff.

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  12. I actually think that guys whose OBP is due to walks are better off than guys whose OBP is due to hitting, because the walks are far more controllable and therefore much more likely to stay consistent.

    I don't understand why that would be. Walking is just as much dependant on the pitcher as it is on the hitter.

    I understand Wang is better at home, but I don't know how substantially a 3 day Wang is better than Mussina on 10.

    Wang's ERA+ was 117, while Mussina's was 84, and that's not taking into account the fact that Wang is a lot better at home. That's a huge gap and considering how bad Mussina was in some of his starts, I think the gamble is worth taking, especially considering the unproven notion that sinkerball pitchers are better on short rest. Maybe Mussina's stregths matchup better against the Indians than Wang's, but Wang was a much, much better pitcher this year.

    Yeah, agree with G - Joba didn't seem too comfortable against the Indians, though he still had good stuff.

    Taking out that inning, Chamberlain was dominant. His other mediocre inning came in the second inning of an appearance after only one day's rest, something he had never done before. It is very, very likely that Joba would not have given up a run on Friday night if not for the Midges.

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  13. it's clearly the sox in 6.

    foolish ezzie

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  14. "--all a team can really do is get to the playoffs; everything after that is basically luck"

    You ever think Billy Beane has to say that cus his team always gets eliminated early in the playoffs? Now he can blame it on luck, but 9 out of 10 times its the best or 2nd best team that makes the World Series - so not really luck.

    Mets in 4!

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  15. I don't understand why that would be. Walking is just as much dependant on the pitcher as it is on the hitter.

    Not sure how you mean that. I mean that from a hitter's standpoint, they are more likely to have a fluke series in terms of where their hit balls land than in terms of drawing walks. A walk is a walk is a walk; a ground or fly ball is much more 'luck' in terms of where it goes. This can also work to the hitter's advantage (see Jhonny Peralta!), but generally if you're looking to get 'guaranteed' bases, you'd want a guy who walks a lot.

    Maybe Mussina's stregths matchup better against the Indians than Wang's, but Wang was a much, much better pitcher this year.

    That's pretty much my point. Wang is better, but not in THIS situation.

    Also, the Indians' hitting coach said before the game that the notion that Wang would be better off than most P's on short rest probably wouldn't apply to guys like him or Carmona, who throw really hard sinkers. They're still using that arm strength like a fastball or hard breaking ball pitcher.

    SE - HAHAHA. I hope not.

    Gabagoo - I think he's right. The best team the last few years hasn't generally won.

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