NFL Picks Week 11

[MONDAY UPDATE:] Browns walked all over the Dolphins, 22-0... and Ze'ev's Giants didn't blow it. But Washington, Pittsburgh, and Atlanta all lost in the last minutes, St. Louis played like a bunch of fools and turned a lead into a blowout loss, and Carolina lost to the Bears, which means I was half-wrong below. Indy still won. :) Assuming the Packers win tonight, I'll still have done relatively well this week in the pool, and I should cut the overall lead to just 32 points.[/]

[TUESDAY:] Ouch. Packers lost last second as well, giving me 4 last-minute FG losses. And a crappy week, too... 10-6 and just 89 points (out of 136). First place had 108 points, so I didn't finish too far out points-wise; but not getting those 13 on Green Bay leaves me 44 out of first place overall - 7 more than last week and down to a tie for 11th place. I was T-21/30 for the week.

A quick explanation and note... if you want more detail, check out my previous posts on the subject. I use the Aikman Ratings, then add 10 points to the home team's rating - I've been thinking lately about reducing it to 9 points, but haven't yet: And this week it would actually change the winners of two games. Hmmm... I have until 1:00 PM tomorrow to change my mind. Screw it - I'm changing. Make it +9, not +10, for the home team. Anyways, here they are:

[Home teams in CAPS; my picks in bold]
Oak 7 WAS L
Det 10 DAL W
Mia 3 CLE W
Arz 9 STL L
L Pit 11 BAL
W Jax 5 4 TEN
Phi 12 NYG W
No 4 NE W
Car 2 CHI
L Car 1 CHI
Tb 6 ATL L
W Sea 16 SF
Ind 1 CIN
W Ind 2 CIN
Buf 14 SD W
Nyj 15 DEN W
W Kc 8 HOU
Min 13 GB L

I just don't think Indianapolis can lose to the Bengals, at least not now; and I don't see the Bears defense compensating for their lack of offense this week - against a great Panthers team. The Browns have played both the Colts and the Bengals: The Bengals defense is good, but it's not great. And their offense is very good - but also not great. The Colts are great on both sides of the ball at this point. The Browns have also played the Bears - and while the Browns' defense is actually pretty solid, the Panthers are second only to the Bears. If the Browns can hold the Bears down, the Panthers can easily - and the Panthers have more offense, too.

Technorati tags: NFL, Picks, Week 11, Aikman Ratings.