tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13326001.post113859655963050593..comments2024-03-02T03:29:09.759-05:00Comments on SerandEz and Friends: Shattered DreamsEzziehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12494592434522239195noreply@blogger.comBlogger18125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13326001.post-1138781649330596742006-02-01T03:14:00.000-05:002006-02-01T03:14:00.000-05:00Ben-David, I wonder what your credentials are for ...Ben-David, I wonder what your credentials are for making such a grandiose statement. Are you a military strategist or tactician? The majority of well known strategists agree that Sharon was a masterful strategist. You don't face down thousands of Syrians coming at only about 600 of your man and still win by flying by the seat of your pants. And, he didn't only do this once but many a times. <BR/><BR/>His political tactics being shady and perhaps a little bit unethical in order to get an agenda accomplished is just good politics whether you want to admit it or not. <BR/><BR/>And, Gush Katif turning out the way it did had nothing to do with Sharon, it started the day Oslo was signed. The Disengagement was coming and was going to have to be done, whether it was Sharon or Netanyahu, or another yahoo. It was inevitable. The Disengagement also did nothing to strengthen Hamas' stance, being that every terrorist group took credit for the settlements' demise. Hamas takes credit for every tectical decision Israel does to secure itself. It may have given them an extra percentage point in the polls, but I doubt it. Hamas popularity has been reinforced because of all of Fatah's and PA's corruption.<BR/><BR/>The main thing here is that you can disagree with the political methods Sharon used to get things done, but you can't argue with the fact that he has accomplished everything that he wanted, and he did what he needed to get it done. To say there has been no grand plan is to look over the course of the chain of events and not connect the dots. <BR/><BR/>I am not creating something out of nothing in some naive effort to have a "strong leader". I am looking at all the facts and stating obvious conclusions. To think that it's not in all politicians' heads to save their own skin would be extremely naive on your part. It's good politics to see that a strong winning party is being formed with logical politics that is aimed at following the main stream that the country is heading towards and join it. And, again, the obvious here is that will Kadima will win. Likud will falter, and the current coalition will stay intact. Kadima wasn't constructed to be a long lasting party. Who it will become when it falls is anybody's guess, but it has caused a ripple effect that now forces every other major party to redefine what it's all about and where it's going.<BR/><BR/>Now, that's good politics.<BR/>-OCOlah Chadashahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04944285441651551482noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13326001.post-1138730076818906142006-01-31T12:54:00.000-05:002006-01-31T12:54:00.000-05:00Ben-David - I'm sorry, I have to disagree. I thoug...Ben-David - I'm sorry, I have to disagree. I thought very similarly, but looking back, it's just so... :::obvious::: to me. Conclusive? No. But it makes so much more sense. Also, click on the link on the word "while" - I quote from a great article there that talks about what you said regarding his strategics.Ezziehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12494592434522239195noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13326001.post-1138720816080058502006-01-31T10:20:00.000-05:002006-01-31T10:20:00.000-05:00sigh.... very sad to see people still believing th...sigh.... very sad to see people still believing that Sharon was a "master strategist" who had all this figured out.<BR/><BR/>He was a personally brave military leader who impetuous and risky style inspired loyalty. He was not a brilliant strategist more than 2 or 3 moves ahead.<BR/><BR/>He was corrupt up to his ears - not just recently, either.<BR/><BR/>One story sums it up:<BR/><BR/>Shortly after he left the army, he was introduced to another former general who was starting a political party. Sharon met with him. The general gave Sharon a copy of the party's working platform.<BR/><BR/>About a week later Sharon held a press conference, in which he read out the other guy's material - verbatim - as if it were all his own idea, his party.<BR/><BR/>When he met the general later, Sharon chortled and said: "the whole army knows that I'm a 'neveilah' and you didn't?"<BR/><BR/>None of this is "brilliant strategy" - not betraying your most loyal base, not trashing the Likud, not turning Gush Katif into Palestinian launching pads (which probably went a long way towards making Hamas credibly electable in many Pali eyes).<BR/><BR/>Sharon twisted and turned with little concern for democracy or long-term consolidation of his political base. Instead of cleaning out the judiciary and the broadcast media - both in his control as PM - he caved to the blackmail exerted upon him from these left-wing bastions. In the end they would have discarded him the moment he balked or strayed from the left-wing agenda - as they say in Hebrew slang, "HaKushi asah et sheloh, HaKushi yachol lalechet" - "the nigger has been useful, but now the nigger can go".<BR/><BR/>It's also likely that Kadimah will tank - and would have even if Sharon were still active. This raft of backbiting losers has no agenda other than saving the political skins of its members.<BR/><BR/>There REALLY, really was no grand plan, folks. Just backstabbing and brutal Mafia-style politics to stay alive.<BR/><BR/>It seems some people's response to our uncertain times is to crave a "strong leader" - and create one out of the merest wisp of PR smoke.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13326001.post-1138645002636699992006-01-30T13:16:00.000-05:002006-01-30T13:16:00.000-05:00OC - Thanks for the article, it gives a better bac...OC - Thanks for the article, it gives a better background.<BR/><BR/>I should have clarified that Clinton's tactics didn't work, and while such tactics move scandals off the front pages, the investigations continued. Well structured comment, thanks.Ezziehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12494592434522239195noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13326001.post-1138643956108461292006-01-30T12:59:00.000-05:002006-01-30T12:59:00.000-05:00westbankmama, you couldn't be more wrong about Sha...westbankmama, you couldn't be more wrong about Sharon. Sharon has been natoriously (sp?) known to be a master strategist. Nothing is done by the "seat of his pants". He's always thinking 2, 3, even 10 steps ahead. Ask any military officer worth their stuff, and they will tell you the same thing.<BR/><BR/>And, the conspiricy theory that Sharon carried out the Disengagement Plane as a way to not be prosecuted, along with his son, is completely baseless. And, while, Ezzie, you're right that Clinton fired a couple of missiles at some tents and an advil factory in the desert in Iraq to draw attention from his various scandals, it didn't work. He was impeached anyways. Even if he hadn't been, he obviously was not going to carry an all out war against Iraq as a ploy to cicumvent his misadventures. It was a few minute delay to the problem.<BR/><BR/>So to here, westbankmama. If Sharon was using the possibility of Disengagement to to get out of any legal troubles, he wouldn't have carried it out. It would have been pointless. And, I can say that based on what has happened now. His son was still indicted even with the Disengagement going on, and the investigation of Sharon also continued, and the charges were dropped. <BR/><BR/>Still speaking about that completely dishonors and doesn't take into account every single high brass military person, tactician, and strategist (of which there were hundreds) that said that the situation in Gaza was no longer tenable and was putting the entire country at risk.<BR/><BR/>Ezzie, based on this good article, I recommend a great follow-up reading for you. I think you would be interested and appreciate it.<BR/>http://www.me-ontarget.com/the_2005_articles/february__2005/%0d%0athe_last_warrior_standing.html<BR/>Enjoy.<BR/>-OCOlah Chadashahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04944285441651551482noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13326001.post-1138642594138471302006-01-30T12:36:00.000-05:002006-01-30T12:36:00.000-05:00McOrn - You're alive! :)Copy Editor: That's not re...McOrn - You're alive! :)<BR/><BR/>Copy Editor: That's not really true. Those countries have all recognized they are no match for Israel, and their people are already quite radicalized. In the face of a democratic Iraq, they are coming to the conclusion that they are far happier and better off by growing up. <BR/><BR/>Egypt can't afford to lose aid by fighting Israel - plus, they can't win. Iraq & Afghanistan have no interest, and no ability to attack; and Iran can't afford to attack, knowing that would give the US and others the perfect reason to go right to Tehran. Pakistan is too far away, and India (oddly enough) is one of Israel's strongest allies. Things have quieted there - they don't need to get things going again.Ezziehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12494592434522239195noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13326001.post-1138641232526678582006-01-30T12:13:00.000-05:002006-01-30T12:13:00.000-05:00Rafi G: In a way, you're right. Who says Sharon wo...Rafi G: In a way, you're right. Who says Sharon would have been any different?<BR/><BR/>But if you look at Sharon's history, I think it is clear that he would do so. He always would charge forward in battle when people were afraid of how it would "look", from charging to Cairo to Operation Defensive Shield. He quickly went into Gaza after the Disengagement when Hamas started up, though he just held the status quo. We'll never know, but this makes sense to me.<BR/><BR/>IYWI: I still think the government will be center-right, but not as strong, and with a weaker leader. But it is time to play the waiting game...Ezziehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12494592434522239195noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13326001.post-1138640983576100052006-01-30T12:09:00.000-05:002006-01-30T12:09:00.000-05:00WestBankMama - One, he picked Bibi to be finance m...WestBankMama - <I>One, he picked Bibi to be finance minister and Shalom to be foreign minister to weaken them both. Sharon didn't want him to succeed - so he gave him the finance position. Sharon did not imagine that Bibi would be so successful.</I><BR/><BR/>I agree Sharon was trying to weaken Bibi; at the same time, most people (er, most outside of Israel) agreed that Bibi's plans for the economy were in the long-term interests of the country. I remember arguing with my cousins even then about this, as they were against an American style economy; a few years later, they begrudgingly admit I was correct. I think he not only wanted Bibi to succeed, he needed him to.<BR/><BR/><I>Two, Sharon always flew by the seat of his pants. The reason that he kept his cards close to his chest was that he didn't have long term plans. Being able to think on your feet is a necessary skill here in Israel in general, and in the army in particular. When things change so quickly you have to be able to move with the times - which he did, many times successfully.</I><BR/><BR/>That's somewhat the point of this piece, but read the link on the word "while". If you <B>really</B> think about it, he almost never did things by the seat of his pants: He just gave off that impression, because it allowed him to do what he wanted. This is where his genius lies. (I should note that I don't agree with everything he did, one of the reasons being because it was too reliant on himself; that's another point of this piece.)<BR/><BR/><I>I know, it sounds paranoid to Americans, but Sharon really did make his decisions on Gaza because of the threat of indictment over his head and over Omri's head.</I><BR/><BR/>It doesn't sound too paranoid: We had a President who threw missiles because of a scandal with an intern. That being said, it's not true. Sharon wouldn't ruin a country he clearly loved and was dedicated to to change the headlines. Perhaps it changed the timing of certain leaks a bit, or perhaps he concentrated on it more because of Omri; but that's not "why" the disengagement happened.Ezziehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12494592434522239195noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13326001.post-1138639210020084942006-01-30T11:40:00.000-05:002006-01-30T11:40:00.000-05:00This is a very interesting scenario, and you have ...This is a very interesting scenario, and you have the measure of Sharon. But, I do not think you have the measure of your opponent. An Israeli incursion with full military force will lead to the further radicalization of Islamists in Egypt, Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, et cetera.<BR/><BR/>The Israeli army will mop the floor, of course, with any band of Hamas -- but this is an existential battle. There will be no peace tables.Bravo 2-1https://www.blogger.com/profile/05219307722101813302noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13326001.post-1138622404465179432006-01-30T07:00:00.000-05:002006-01-30T07:00:00.000-05:00This is a truely excellent piece of writing, and y...This is a truely excellent piece of writing, and you stole my comment for your closing paragraph!<BR/><BR/>Israel is always full of suprises and we're at a juncture without an alternative. Sharon is out of the picture and no one really knew his long term plan.<BR/><BR/>I hope your preditcion of the right clubbing together comes true, but we look set to have a centre-left government rather than the prefered centre-right.<BR/><BR/>Time to play the waiting game?ifyouwillit...https://www.blogger.com/profile/12399924134798730080noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13326001.post-1138615096083896952006-01-30T04:58:00.000-05:002006-01-30T04:58:00.000-05:00It is a plausible "what if" scenario, but it is on...It is a plausible "what if" scenario, but it is only a "what if" - what if Ariel Sharon had not had his stroke. We do not know that this is how it would have played out. <BR/>Many times in the past the Israeli government has threatened a massive full force response if they should so much as lift their fingers. We pulled out of Lebanon and over time it has gotten quiet. But originally Barak threatened that now that we will be out, if they so much as look at us the wrong way we will use full scale force. they kidnapped and killed a number of our soldiers and we did nothing. We pulled out of Gaza with similar promises, yet with Kassams falling on Sderot and even Southern Ashkelon, we have not done anything.<BR/>Promises and threats of full retaliation have not been implemented, and there is no reason to think Ariel Sharon would have actually used this force in the situation you propose.<BR/><BR/>But it is very plausible and a great post!Rafi G.https://www.blogger.com/profile/00699851287106903971noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13326001.post-1138612371812569602006-01-30T04:12:00.000-05:002006-01-30T04:12:00.000-05:00Ezzie - I think you are reading way too much into ...Ezzie - I think you are reading way too much into Arik Sharon's supposed "brilliance". One, he picked Bibi to be finance minister and Shalom to be foreign minister to weaken them both. Bibi was the clear choice for foreign minister because he is an accomplished English speaker and a past Prime Minister. Sharon didn't want him to succeed - so he gave him the finance position. Sharon did not imagine that Bibi would be so successful.<BR/><BR/>Two, Sharon always flew by the seat of his pants. The reason that he kept his cards close to his chest was that he didn't have long term plans. Being able to think on your feet is a necessary skill here in Israel in general, and in the army in particular. When things change so quickly you have to be able to move with the times - which he did, many times successfully.<BR/><BR/>I know, it sounds paranoid to Americans, but Sharon really did make his decisions on Gaza because of the threat of indictment over his head and over Omri's head. In a few weeks Omri will be sentenced - either to jail time or to "public service". I predict he won't spend one day in jail. Even with Arik out of the picture, there are a lot of powerful people behind the scenes in Israel who don't want to see all of their hard earned protectzia go to waste.westbankmamahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07175250198028829889noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13326001.post-1138603095710406172006-01-30T01:38:00.000-05:002006-01-30T01:38:00.000-05:00Well, that's my point: His one failing was his cou...Well, that's my point: His one failing was his counting on his own continued presence in politics. He was right to think himself indispensable - he IS the only one who could have carried out his plans all the way; and telling anybody would have defeated it early. As I stated above, it makes far more sense to say that Hamas would win, no matter what the intelligence services thought; granted, it's easier for me to say now, but in retrospect, there hasn't been anything particularly surprising - which is why there has been no uproar in Israel. (The stock market didn't move when Hamas won, for example. When Bibi resigned, it fell 5%.)Ezziehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12494592434522239195noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13326001.post-1138601237179303422006-01-30T01:07:00.000-05:002006-01-30T01:07:00.000-05:00None of Israel's intelligence services predicted i...None of Israel's intelligence services predicted it but it was obvious?<BR/><BR/>I didn't believe that Kadima would have remained a majority party even if Sharon had been healthy. I suppose it could have been the exception, but that was only because of Sharon.<BR/><BR/>I think he counted on two things: his own continued presence in politics and the continuation of the status quo.<BR/><BR/>It's one of the problems when someone thinks himself indispensible and doesn't regard anyone else as fit to know what he's thinking.<BR/><BR/>I see no reason to assume that he foresaw this possibility.Soccer Dadhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16142724823098073038noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13326001.post-1138600328201459172006-01-30T00:52:00.000-05:002006-01-30T00:52:00.000-05:00I don't think that Sharon considered the possibili...<I>I don't think that Sharon considered the possibility that Hamas would win the legislative elections.</I><BR/><BR/>I think it was obvious, in retrospect: Fatah was accomplishing zero. Sharon had acted without Fatah being involved in the slightest (oh, left that out...), which means they weren't contributing in any way. Throw in corruption, lack of leadership, and a Hamas social services system that was incredibly successful, and it's clear that Hamas was going to win.<BR/><BR/>Now, Netanyahu may win - but I still think Kadima will, if only because people don't want the Likud to.<BR/><BR/>Yes, it's all speculation - but IMHO, it has a very solid basis.<BR/><BR/>Heh - I was actually thinking as I finished it that I should submit it to OJ, but I think the first half is a bit too choppy. Maybe I will anyway, though... btw, so far I'm right on Bush. I've been thinking of a follow-up piece, but I'm going to wait another few months first.Ezziehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12494592434522239195noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13326001.post-1138599843590091562006-01-30T00:44:00.000-05:002006-01-30T00:44:00.000-05:00It's supposed to be Kesher Talk this week. I guess...It's supposed to be Kesher Talk this week. I guess we'll see it tomorrow.<BR/><BR/>Still I don't buy it. I don't think that Sharon considered the possibility that Hamas would win the legislative elections.<BR/><BR/>While I agree with you that the outcome of the Israeli election will likely end up with the center-right holding about 3/4 of the Knesset (as did the 2003 elections) but with Likud being the dominant party again. Netanyahu stuck with disenagement for too long, but I believe that his "defensible borders" has a lot more credibility than anyone else advocating unilateral withdrawal.<BR/>Of course this is all speculation.<BR/>(Isn't this a lot your George Bush article that got published in Opinion Journal?)Soccer Dadhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16142724823098073038noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13326001.post-1138597580462098932006-01-30T00:06:00.000-05:002006-01-30T00:06:00.000-05:00Could be she's still working on it... I've been wa...Could be she's still working on it... I've been waiting too! :)Ezziehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12494592434522239195noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13326001.post-1138597436918382262006-01-30T00:03:00.000-05:002006-01-30T00:03:00.000-05:00This is a really great post with a very effective ...This is a really great post with a very effective ending!!! Make sure to send it to HH. By the way, what happened to this week's HH?Irina Tsukermanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10964771563778702009noreply@blogger.com